A major hurricane hits the Caribbean coast of Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala, in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
In November 2020 two Category 4 hurricanes, Eta and Iota, struck Nicaragua's northeast coast two weeks apart and flooded Honduras and Guatemala. The 2026 season has had one major hurricane, which made landfall in Florida. A strong El Niño into early 2027 damps Atlantic storms, but the 2027 peak season, inside this window, is not yet forecast.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: yearly exposure of these coasts in August-October, with 2020 as precedent. Brakes: El Niño into early 2027; one major hurricane in all of 2026. One live driver held by a brake is 3, as on the Jamaica and Bahamas cards.
The other facts on file (3)
- Eta weakened to winds about half its landfall speed a day later; more than 100 evacuated at La Ceiba and Tela, Honduras [3] (4 Nov 2020)
- Eta made landfall about 15 n mi south-southwest of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, on 3 Nov 2020 as a Category 4 (120 kt); at least 165 direct deaths, 74 in Honduras and 60 in Guatemala; about 4.9 million affected (UN); about US$6.8bn damage in Central America (Aon) [6] (9 Jun 2021)
- Iota made landfall near Haulover, Nicaragua, at 0340 UTC on 17 Nov 2020 as a Category 4, about 15 miles south of Eta's landfall [5] (16 Nov 2020)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of the coast of Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala, in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Ports and roadsCaribbean ports such as Puerto Cortés, La Ceiba and Bilwi close; in 2020 floods destroyed roads and bridges and cut off villages [6].
- Farms and exportsBananas, palm oil and coffee on the Caribbean slope lose a season (no sized figure for the threshold case).
- Public financeEmergency spending and reconstruction strain three small budgets.
Sectors 3
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
- Banks and insurers
Countries 5
- Honduras primary
- Nicaragua primary
- Guatemala primary
- Belize
- El Salvador
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Belize, El Salvador.
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Banks and insurers
- Goods
- Coffee, Palm oil
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet year
El Niño's damping carries into the 2027 season and no major hurricane nears the coast.
- S2
Near miss
A major hurricane passes north through the Yucatán Channel or weakens before landfall; floods but no defined event.
- S3
Direct hit
A Category 3 or stronger storm crosses the Honduran or Nicaraguan coast.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | NOAA's May 2027 Atlantic outlook calls a below-normal season |
| S2 | A hurricane watch for the Bay Islands in Aug-Oct 2027 |
| S3 | NHC advisories in Sep-Oct 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Nov 2026 End of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season [1] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 End of the season NOAA's El Niño outlook covers [2] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Jun 2027 Start of the 2027 Atlantic hurricane season [1] Declared · Outside event
- Aug 2027 Peak season, August to October 2027 [1] Tentative · Window
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The other side
Each storm year speeds catastrophe insurance, early-warning systems and climate-resilient roads in the region; builders and insurers that serve those programmes gain (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Honduras
- Nicaragua
- Guatemala
- El Salvador
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same Caribbean hurricane season and the same 50-mile best-track test.
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Bahamas before 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same hurricane season and test.
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: El Niño is the main brake on the 2026-27 Atlantic season.
- A major hurricane passes close to the Dominican Republic Shares a channel: The same Atlantic season and El Niño brake; one storm track can threaten both coasts.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Tropical Cyclone Reports, 2026 Atlantic season (index). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Three dead as weakening Eta batters Nicaragua. Tico Times · 4 Nov 2020 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Iota Tropical Cyclone Update. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 16 Nov 2020 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Eta (AL292020). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 9 Jun 2021 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; trend flat · All risks