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Nicaragua

Nicaragua imports 60.6% of the cereals it eats (2024/25), all its wheat and a third of its rice. A Medium band; a Feb 2026 ministerial agreement opened a duty-free yellow maize quota, citing a shortage. Approved reading

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

Nicaragua in our readings

Nicaragua is in 2 of our country readings.

  • Food and fertiliser Medium
  • Sovereign debt Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Elevated
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Not yet set
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Nicaragua on the outlook map

Dates for Nicaragua on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Nicaragua

  • Food and fertiliser Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach Nicaragua
  • Sovereign debt Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Nicaragua

All world risks that touch Nicaragua

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Nicaragua makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index, the next monthly release. Food and fertiliser
  • Annual (date not set) New edition of World Bank International Debt Statistics. Sovereign debt

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Nicaragua?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Nicaragua on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Nicaragua.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Nicaragua

Nicaragua imports 60.6% of the cereals it eats (2024/25), all its wheat and a third of its rice. A Medium band; a Feb 2026 ministerial agreement opened a duty-free yellow maize quota, citing a shortage.

Theme band Medium

60.6%

Cereal imports, % of cereal use, 2024/25

544

Maize imports, kt, 2024/25 (USDA PSD)

33.5%

Rice imports, % of rice use, 2024/25

183 kt

Duty-free yellow maize quota, tonnes, 2026

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Maize for feed and food is largely imported: 544 kt of 925 kt used in 2024/25 (USDA PSD).
  • A ministerial agreement (MIFIC 002-2026) opened a duty-free import quota of 183,000 t of yellow maize, citing a shortage, for poultry and feed firms, valid to 31 Dec 2026.
  • Wheat is all imported (311 kt in 2024/25), as is 33.5% of rice use (USDA PSD).
  • Agriculture is 14.5% of GDP (2025) and Nicaragua makes no fertiliser of its own (FAOSTAT, 2022), so input prices could reach farm output.

Opportunities

  • Most rice is grown at home: imports were 139 kt against use of 415 kt in 2024/25 (USDA PSD).
  • The 2026 maize quota is open to any WTO member's grain, so origins can shift with price.

Uncertainties

  • The fertiliser channel could not be tested: no open table of fertiliser imports by origin was found.
  • Grain imports by origin were not found in an open source, so the main supplier is not shown.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index (cereals, vegetable oils).
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE and the PSD update of world grain trade.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index, the next monthly release.
  • 31 Dec 2026Duty-free yellow maize quota expires.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence60.6% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)MediumHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue1.46% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Nicaragua: imports as % of use, 2024/25 (USDA PSD)
Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (2024/25) (our calculation)Wheat imports as a*100.0Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 60.6% (2024/25) (our calculation)Cereal imports as a*60.6Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 33.5% (2024/25) (our calculation)Milled rice imports a…*33.5

Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 60.6% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 33.5% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 1.46% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Nicaragua

Nicaragua's one line is old arrears: US$1,183.2m in default every year since 2020, legacy official debt capped at Low. Debt service and interest sit below the lines.

Theme band Low

US$1.18bn

Debt in default, US$m (2025)

US$8.84bn

Public external debt, US$m (end-2025, central bank)

2.84%

Average rate on public external debt contracted, % (2025)

7.5%

Public external debt service, % of exports (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The arrears equal 5.32% of GDP and the stock has not changed since 2020; it stays on the books until settled.
  • Public external debt rose by US$178.9m in 2025 to US$8,836.6m, as the central bank reports.
  • Official bilateral creditors hold 30.5% of total external debt (end-2025).

Opportunities

  • Public external debt contracted in 2025 carried 2.84% on average, over 21 years with 10 years' grace.
  • Multilateral lenders hold 42.3% of total external debt.
  • Public external debt service was 7.5% of exports in 2024 and interest 7.0% of revenue.

Uncertainties

  • The default database does not name the creditors owed, and the central bank release read does not mention arrears.
  • The S&P rating of B+ comes from a secondary compilation, not the agency's own release. Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • Annual (last: 10 Mar 2026)Central bank annual external debt report; the last one was published in March.
  • Annual (date not set)New edition of World Bank International Debt Statistics.
  • Annual (last update 6 Aug 2026)Next BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database update, which would show any settlement of the arrears.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Default arrearsCapital and finance5.32% of GDP 2025 vs GDP 2025Sovereign debt in default, % of GDPLowHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
External debt serviceCapital and finance7.5% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeBelow lineHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Interest burdenRevenue7% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)Below lineHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance20% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesBelow lineHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
China creditorDependence0.2% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%
Imf exposureCapital and finance0.24% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Nicaragua: total external debt by creditor, % (end-2025)
Share of total external debt owed to official multilateral creditors: 42.3% of external debt (end-2025)End-2025, official mult…42.3Share of total external debt owed to official bilateral creditors: 30.5% of external debt (end-2025)End-2025, official bila…30.5Share of total external debt owed to suppliers and other creditors: 24.1% of external debt (end-2025)End-2025, suppliers and…24.1Share of total external debt owed to commercial banks: 3.1% of external debt (end-2025)End-2025, commercial ba…3.1

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Banco Central de Nicaragua, BCN publica el informe y estadisticas de Deuda Externa total al cuarto trimestre 2025 (10 Mar 2026).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Sovereign debt in default, % of GDP: 5.32% of GDP (= debt in default (US$ m) / GDP × 100)
  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 20% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 0.2% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)
  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 0.24% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Nicaragua (NIC). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Nicaragua”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/nic/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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