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Dominican Republic

Public external principal due 2026-2028 equals 56.4% of the Dominican Republic's 2025 reserves; US$6.04bn of it is bonds. Interest took 19.3% of revenue in 2024. Approved reading

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

The Dominican Republic in our readings

The Dominican Republic is in 2 of our country readings.

  • Sovereign debt Medium
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Low
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Elevated
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare the Dominican Republic on the outlook map

Dates for Dominican Republic on the risk calendar

Risks that reach the Dominican Republic

  • Sovereign debt Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach the Dominican Republic
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for the Dominican Republic

All world risks that touch the Dominican Republic

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much the Dominican Republic makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Monthly Public debt reports for the non-financial public sector. Sovereign debt
  • 2027 Bond principal of US$2.17bn falls due. Sovereign debt
  • 2028 Bond principal of US$1.47bn falls due. Sovereign debt
  • 10 Dec 2026 USDA WASDE: next update of the world grain balance sheets. Food and fertiliser
  • Oct 2026-Sep 2027 Corn imports for 2026/27, forecast at 1.67 million t (USDA). Food and fertiliser

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in the Dominican Republic?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open the Dominican Republic on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch the Dominican Republic.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic imports most of its grain: cereal imports were 83.4% of use in 2024/25, nearly all from the Americas. The US supplied 76% of wheat imports.

Theme band Medium

83.4%

cereal imports as a share of use (2024/25)

1,619

kt of maize imported (2024/25)

557,165

t of wheat from the US (2024/25; USDA, Trade Data Monitor data)

742,244

t of corn from Brazil (2024/25; USDA, Trade Data Monitor data)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Home-grown corn meets less than 5% of use, and poultry depends on imported feed (USDA).
  • Corn supply is concentrated: from October 2025 to January 2026 Brazil supplied over 90% of corn imports (USDA).
  • Wheat is all imported: 764 kt in 2024/25 against 610 kt used.
  • Soybean oil is imported too, 215 kt in 2024/25.

Opportunities

  • No Black Sea wheat was listed in USDA's table for 2024/25: the US supplied 557,165 t, Canada 151,441 t and Argentina 25,007 t in 2024/25.
  • US wheat enters duty-free under CAFTA-DR, and corn is free of duty and VAT.
  • Corn came from more than one origin: the US supplied 811,919 t and Brazil 742,244 t in 2024/25 (USDA).

Uncertainties

  • USDA's four grains leave out sorghum, so the share covers those four grains only. The band follows the theme's cereal rule, which places it one step lower.
  • Sources differ on wheat imports: 764 kt in the balance sheet, 733,613 t in the USDA trade tabulation.
  • The staple import bill was about US$0.88 bn, 0.7% of GDP, under the 1% line.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereal and vegetable oil prices.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: world wheat, maize and rice balance sheets.
  • 10 Dec 2026USDA WASDE: next update of the world grain balance sheets.
  • Oct 2026-Sep 2027Corn imports for 2026/27, forecast at 1.67 million t (USDA).

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence83.4% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)MediumHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue0.7% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Wheat imports by origin, 2024/25 (t; USDA, Trade Data Monitor data)
Wheat imports from the United States: 557,165 t (MY 2024/25)United States557,165Wheat imports from Canada: 151,441 t (MY 2024/25)Canada151,441Wheat imports from Argentina: 25,007 t (MY 2024/25)Argentina25,007

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: USDA FAS GAIN, Dominican Republic: Grain and Feed Annual, report DR2026-0004 (2 Apr 2026) (Trade Data Monitor data).

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 83.4% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 0.7% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Dominican Republic

Public external principal due 2026-2028 equals 56.4% of the Dominican Republic's 2025 reserves; US$6.04bn of it is bonds. Interest took 19.3% of revenue in 2024.

Theme band Medium

56.4%

external public principal due 2026-2028, % of 2025 reserves

US$6.04bn

US$bn of bond principal due 2026-2028

19.3%

interest, % of government revenue (2024)

23.2%est.

interest, % of revenue in the 2027 draft budget (reported)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Bond principal of US$6.04bn falls due in 2026-2028: US$2.4bn in 2026, 2.17 in 2027 and 1.47 in 2028.
  • The 2027 draft budget puts interest at RD$351,327m, 23.2% of revenue, against 22.5% in 2026 (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Non-financial public sector debt rose to US$67,826.8m in July 2026 from US$61,549.9m in December 2025 (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Public external debt service took 14.2% of exports in 2024, US$4.26bn.

Opportunities

  • The state sold US$2.75bn of bonds in Feb 2026, due 2034 and 2038, at 5.75% and 6.15%.
  • Creditors in China held 0.0% of public external debt in 2024 (World Bank), and the Bank of Canada and Bank of England database counts no debt in default in 2025.

Uncertainties

  • The budget ratio of 23.2% would reach the Medium line, but the band uses the World Bank figure of 19.3% for 2024; the press does not say which revenue base it uses. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The World Bank schedule is built on end-2024 debt; the Feb 2026 bond issue is not in it.
  • Ratings come from a secondary list: S&P BB stable and Fitch BB- positive (low confidence). Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • MonthlyPublic debt reports for the non-financial public sector.
  • 2027Bond principal of US$2.17bn falls due.
  • 2028Bond principal of US$1.47bn falls due.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Refinancing wallCapital and finance56.4% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesMediumHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
External debt serviceCapital and finance14.2% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeLowHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Interest burdenRevenue19.3% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)LowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
China creditorDependence0% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Public external principal due 2026-2028 and reserves (US$bn)
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$8.33bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due, all creditors, 2026-288.3Projected principal repayments to bondholders on public external debt, 2026-2028: US$6.04bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due to bondholders, 2026-286.0Total reserves including gold: US$14.8bn (2025)Total14.8

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart Bondholders, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 56.4% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 0% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Dominican Republic (DOM). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Dominican Republic”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/dom/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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