The US puts a national-security tariff or quota on medical devices from Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US President proclaims Section 232 duties or quotas on medical devices that apply to goods from Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, with no exemption for CAFTA-DR origin.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Proclamation 11077 on robotics and industrial machinery (signed 28 Oct 2026) orders negotiations and sets no duty; no 2026 device proclamation in the Federal Register [3]
- Section 232 device investigation opened 2 Sep 2025; 817 comments; 270-day report date passed with no public report or proclamation [2]
- Proclamation 11020 (2 Apr 2026) set a 100% default rate on patented drugs [2]
Why it matters
Medical devices are the top export of both Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic; the United States takes 72% of the Dominican sector's exports and about US$6bn a year from Costa Rica. The US Commerce Department opened a Section 232 national-security investigation into medical devices on 2 Sep 2025; its report date passed in mid-2026 with no public report or proclamation. A sister case on robotics ended on 28 Oct 2026 in talks, not duties.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: an open case; the medicines precedent. Brakes: five months past the report date with no action; the robotics case closed on talks with no duty; the CAFTA-DR pattern after the IEEPA ruling. One live driver held by brakes is 3.
Why Impact 5 Canada named as exposed.
The other facts on file (3)
- Costa Rica: medical devices 48% of goods exports to August 2025, about US$7,244m; US imports of devices from Costa Rica about US$6bn in 2024 [1] (17 Oct 2025)
- Dominican Republic: device exports US$2.8bn in 2024; 33.4% of free-zone and 22.2% of national exports; 42 firms [4] (17 Nov 2025)
- IEEPA tariffs ruled unlawful on 20 Feb 2026; Costa Rica's 15% reciprocal tariff no longer applies; exports stay under CAFTA-DR [5] (20 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US President proclaims Section 232 duties or quotas on medical devices that apply to goods from Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, with no exemption for CAFTA-DR origin.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaCanada also ships medical devices to the US [1]; no Canadian loss sourced.
- ExportsA duty adds a charge on both countries' largest export to the US.
- InvestmentFree-zone plants decide where to add lines; a duty favours US or exempt sites.
- JobsFree-zone factory jobs in both countries depend on the sector (no sized figure found).
Sectors 1
- Medical devices
Countries 2
- Costa Rica primary
- Dominican Republic primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, United States, Mexico, Canada, Ireland.
- Sectors
- Medical devices, Manufacturing
- Goods
- Medical devices
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet shelf
The report stays unpublished and no action follows.
- S2
Talks, not duties
A proclamation orders negotiations, as for robotics.
- S3
Duty with no exemption
A rate applies to CAFTA-DR devices.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No Federal Register proclamation on devices by mid-2027 |
| S2 | A device proclamation that sets no rate |
| S3 | A proclamation annex listing device tariff lines |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
A duty on others with a CAFTA-DR exemption would favour Costa Rican and Dominican plants (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Costa Rica
- Dominican Republic
- The US raises its drug tariff on EU medicines above 15% Shares a channel: The same Section 232 instrument on medical goods.
- The US raises or widens its Section 301 "forced-labour" tariff on the 60 listed economies Shares a channel: Another US tariff channel that already lists Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Estados Unidos concluye consulta que podría. La Nación (Costa Rica) · 17 Oct 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Section 232 Medical Device Tariffs: The Investigation That Never Closed. SPS Commerce · 28 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Adjusting Imports of Robotics, Industrial Machinery, and Their Parts and Components Into the United States. Federal Register · 2 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Abinader: RD alberga 7 de las 10 mayores manufactureras de dispositivos médicos del mundo. El Día · 17 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs on Costa Rica. Consortium Legal · 20 Feb 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks