A major hurricane passes close to the Dominican Republic
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Dominican coast, in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
The Dominican Republic sits in the main Caribbean hurricane track, with tourism, free-zone factories and a fragile grid on its coasts. The 2026 season's only major hurricane, Isaias, made landfall in Florida; Melissa's rains in October 2025 left more than a million Dominicans without drinking water. A strong El Niño into early 2027 damps Atlantic storms, but the 2027 peak season, inside this window, is not yet forecast.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: yearly exposure in August-October; Melissa in the same basin in 2025. Brakes: El Niño into early 2027; one major hurricane in all of 2026. One live driver held by a brake is 3, as on the Jamaica and Bahamas cards.
The other facts on file (3)
- Melissa's rains in the Dominican Republic: one dead, 3,785 people out of their homes, 737 homes damaged, more than a million without drinking water [5] (27 Oct 2025)
- Nationwide blackout on 11 Nov 2025; a wide outage in Greater Santo Domingo and four provinces on 23 Feb 2026 [6] (23 Feb 2026)
- Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 on 28 Oct 2025 [4] (28 Oct 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane (96 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Dominican coast, in the US National Hurricane Center's best track.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- TourismResorts on the east and north coasts close and bookings fall in the high season that follows.
- PowerStorm damage to lines can tip a grid that failed nationwide in November 2025 [6].
- Free zones and portsPlants and ports pause; medical devices and apparel ship late.
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Ports and logistics
Countries 2
- Dominican Republic primary
- Haiti
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Dominican Republic, Haiti.
- Sectors
- Tourism, Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet year
El Niño's damping carries into 2027 and no major hurricane comes near.
- S2
Near miss
A major hurricane passes north of Hispaniola beyond 50 nautical miles; rain and surge only.
- S3
Direct hit
A Category 3 or stronger storm crosses or skirts the coast.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | NOAA's May 2027 Atlantic outlook calls a below-normal season |
| S2 | A hurricane watch for the north coast in Aug-Oct 2027 |
| S3 | NHC advisories in Aug-Oct 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 30 Nov 2026 End of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season [1] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 End of the season NOAA's El Niño outlook covers [2] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Jun 2027 Start of the 2027 Atlantic hurricane season [1] Declared · Outside event
- Aug 2027 Peak season, August to October 2027 [1] Tentative · Window
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The other side
Each storm year speeds investment in buried lines, storage and resilient building codes; builders and insurers that serve them gain (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Dominican Republic
- The Dominican grid suffers another general blackout Drives: Storm damage to transmission lines can cause a general grid failure.
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of Jamaica before 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same Caribbean season and the same 50-mile best-track test.
- A major hurricane (Category 3 or above) passes within 50 nautical miles of the Bahamas before 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same season and test.
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: El Niño is the main brake on the 2026-27 Atlantic season.
- A major hurricane hits the Caribbean coast of Honduras, Nicaragua or Guatemala Shares a channel: The same Atlantic season and El Niño brake; one storm track can threaten both coasts.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Tropical Cyclone Reports, 2026 Atlantic season (index). NOAA National Hurricane Center · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update: Category 5 Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica. NOAA National Hurricane Center · 28 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Huracán Melissa se aleja de República Dominicana, pero las lluvias continúan. El Día · 27 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Otro apagón masivo en República Dominicana a solo tres meses del anterior. El Día · 23 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; trend flat · All risks