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El Salvador

El Salvador paid 25.8% of its export earnings to public external creditors in 2024, US$3.06bn: a high debt burden. A 40-month IMF programme with access of about US$1.4bn was approved on 26 Feb 2025. Approved reading

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

El Salvador in our readings

El Salvador is in 2 of our country readings; High in 1.

  • Sovereign debt High
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare El Salvador on the outlook map

Dates for El Salvador on the risk calendar

Risks that reach El Salvador

  • Sovereign debt High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach El Salvador
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for El Salvador

All world risks that touch El Salvador

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much El Salvador makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 2027 IMF staff expect US$2.3bn of unpaid pension-fund interest to be recognised in the debt figures. Sovereign debt
  • Next EFF review (date not announced) The 40-month EFF approved on 26 Feb 2025 continues; each review releases a tranche. Sovereign debt
  • Monthly IMF credit outstanding for El Salvador (IMF balmov2 table). Sovereign debt
  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index for November. Food and fertiliser
  • Monthly Central Reserve Bank trade data: food and cereal imports. Food and fertiliser

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in El Salvador?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open El Salvador on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch El Salvador.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for El Salvador

El Salvador paid 25.8% of its export earnings to public external creditors in 2024, US$3.06bn: a high debt burden. A 40-month IMF programme with access of about US$1.4bn was approved on 26 Feb 2025.

Theme band High

25.8%

of export earnings paid to public external creditors (2024)

US$3.06bn

US$bn public external debt service paid (2024)

39.4%

of reserves: external public principal due 2026-2028

1.01%

IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP (Nov 2026)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Debt service took 25.8% of export earnings in 2024, US$3.06bn paid to public external creditors.
  • Interest took 14.3% of central government revenue in 2024.
  • IMF staff project gross debt of 85.0% of GDP in 2026 and 89.2% in 2027, when US$2.3bn of unpaid pension-fund interest is recognised.
  • The second and third IMF reviews were completed together in 2026, with waivers on the bitcoin accumulation criteria. IMF disbursements come with each completed review.

Opportunities

  • Bond principal due in 2026-2028 is small on the end-2024 schedule: US$0.03bn, all in 2027.
  • IMF staff project a primary surplus of 2.9% of GDP in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027.
  • The BoC-BoE database counts no debt in default in 2025, down from US$1,450m in 2023.

Uncertainties

  • Ratings (S&P and Fitch B-, stable, as listed) come from a secondary compilation; the agencies' own releases are not yet read. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The principal schedule rests on debt outstanding at end-2024; later borrowing and buybacks are not in it.
  • IDS records no public external debt owed to creditors in China in 2024.

What to watch

  • 2027IMF staff expect US$2.3bn of unpaid pension-fund interest to be recognised in the debt figures.
  • Next EFF review (date not announced)The 40-month EFF approved on 26 Feb 2025 continues; each review releases a tranche.
  • MonthlyIMF credit outstanding for El Salvador (IMF balmov2 table).
  • AnnualWorld Bank International Debt Statistics: debt service against export earnings.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
External debt serviceCapital and finance25.8% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeHighHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Interest burdenRevenue14.3% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)LowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance39.4% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesLowHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
Imf exposureCapital and finance1.01% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPLowHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
Default arrearsCapital and financeUS$0m 2025 (preliminary)Sovereign debt in default (all creditors)Below lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
China creditorDependence0% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

External public principal due 2026-2028 against reserves, US$bn
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$1.9bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due, all creditors, 2026-281.90Projected principal repayments to bondholders on public external debt, 2026-2028: US$0.03bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due to bondholders, 2026-280.03Total reserves including gold: US$4.82bn (2025)Total4.82

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart Bondholders, projected).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 39.4% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 1.01% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 0% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for El Salvador

Imports met 75.0% of El Salvador's wheat, maize, rice and barley use in 2024/25, including 867 kt of maize. FAO reports a 2026 drought and expects a below-average maize crop.

Theme band Medium

75%

of grain use met by imports (2024/25)

867

kt of maize imported (2024/25)

398

kt of wheat imported (2024/25)

90%

of yellow maize demand met by US imports (2023-24)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Maize is the largest grain import: 867 kt in 2024/25 against use of 1,375 kt. US imports met 90% of yellow maize demand in 2023-24, so a US price or supply shock would pass straight through.
  • FAO reports a nationwide drought red alert in Aug 2026 and a below-average maize crop, and expects an above-average cereal import need for 2026/27.
  • All wheat is imported: 398 kt in 2024/25.
  • Food imports were US$1,630.1m in Jan-Jun 2026, 3.9% more than a year earlier (central bank data, press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • Cereal import spending fell 1.3% to US$207.31m in Jan-Jun 2026 (press report), even as total food imports rose. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Food price pressure was moderate: annual food inflation peaked at 3.7% in Aug 2026 (FAO).

Uncertainties

  • FAO gives no tonnage for the 2026 maize loss or the 2026/27 import need; both are given only against the average.
  • Fertiliser origin shares rest on an internal-only trade source and are not shown; farm use of each nutrient is below the line's volume floor.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: the cereals and vegetable oils sub-indices.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE and PSD update: El Salvador's maize and wheat balances for the new season.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
  • MonthlyCentral Reserve Bank trade data: food and cereal imports.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence75% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)MediumHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue1.34% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Grain imports and use, 2024/25 (kt)
Corn (maize) domestic consumption: 1,375 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) domest…1,375Corn (maize) imports: 867 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) imports867Wheat imports: 398 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat imports398Wheat domestic consumption: 380 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat domestic cons…380Milled rice imports: 119 1000 t (2024/25)Milled rice imports119Milled rice domestic consumption: 90 1000 t (2024/25)Milled rice domesti…90

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Domestic Consumption; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Domestic Consumption; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Milled rice, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Milled rice, Domestic Consumption.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 75% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 1.34% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: El Salvador (SLV). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “El Salvador”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/slv/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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