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Honduras

Honduras owes the IMF 2.07% of GDP. Its programme of about US$823m was set to end in September 2026, and the government asked the IMF to extend it to 31 Dec 2026; a final review worth about US$120m is under way (reported). Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Honduras?

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
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Your exposure

Honduras in our readings

Honduras is in 2 of our country readings.

  • Sovereign debt Medium
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Honduras on the outlook map

Dates for Honduras on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Honduras

  • Sovereign debt Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach Honduras
  • Food and fertiliser Medium

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Honduras

See Honduras' 5 risks on a chart

Two of Honduras' 5 risks share one score pair: Impact 4, Likelihood 4.

2El Niño drought pushesGuatemala or Honduras past afood-crisis threshold1234567891012345678910LowLowElevatedElevatedHighHighSevereSevereImpactLikelihood

Area is the count.

Solid arc: share under way. Dashed arc: share low confidence.

Tint and lines are the card counts smoothed, each line double the last. They follow the cards; they are not a score.

Every card is in the list below, with its scores.

SourceStrature world-risk cards, approved, as of 11 Nov 2026. Scores are judgements, not probabilities. The two scores are never multiplied.
Exhibit R-5 · HONDURAS · strature.net
Show all 5 world risks for Honduras

All world risks that touch Honduras

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Honduras makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • Late 2026 IMF Board on the sixth and final review of the 2023 arrangement (reported). Sovereign debt
  • 2027 Talks on a new IMF programme for the next three years (reported). Sovereign debt
  • Annual World Bank interest-to-revenue figure, last published for 2020. Sovereign debt
  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index for November. Food and fertiliser
  • Monthly World Bank Pink Sheet: urea and potassium chloride prices. Food and fertiliser

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Honduras?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Honduras on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Honduras.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Honduras

Honduras imports 73.4% of the grain it eats; its staple import bill is 1.41% of GDP. An NGO alert expects drought to cut maize and beans, and all nitrogen fertiliser is imported.est.

Theme band Medium

73.4%

of grain use met by imports (2024/25)

1.41%

of GDP, staple import bill (2024 prices)

1,034

kt of maize imported (2024/25)

106,830

t of nitrogen used on farms (2024)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Grain imports meet 73.4% of use; maize imports were 1,034 kt in 2024/25, and wheat and rice imports cover all their use.
  • A drought alert in July 2026 expected maize and bean output in priority areas to fall by more than 40%, which could raise import needs (ACT Alliance; estimate). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Russia supplied 52% of fertiliser import volume in 2019-2021, the national farm federation told Bloomberg Linea (estimate). No newer open figure by origin was found. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Urea averaged US$700.0/t in 2022, 45% above 2021. Agriculture is 13.3% of GDP, so a fertiliser squeeze could reach farm output within a season.
  • The bill, about US$0.52bn on 2024 prices, moves with grain prices: US wheat averaged US$430.0/t in 2022, 36% above 2021.

Opportunities

  • Honduras exports palm oil: 320 kt in 2024/25 against 105 kt imported.
  • Canada, a supplier outside Russia, Belarus and China, shipped C$11.7m of potash to Honduras in 2025 (Statistics Canada).

Uncertainties

  • No open customs figure splits fertiliser imports by origin after 2021; the farm federation's share predates the war in Ukraine. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The size of the 2026 crop loss is an NGO estimate for priority areas, not a national figure. Estimate from press or commentary
  • The cereal share uses USDA's four grains and leaves out sorghum.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereals and vegetable oils.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: world maize and rice balances for the new season.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
  • MonthlyWorld Bank Pink Sheet: urea and potassium chloride prices.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence73.4% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)MediumHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue1.41% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPLowHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Imports as a share of domestic use, 2024/25 (%)
Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (2024/25) (our calculation)Wheat imports as a*100.0Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (2024/25) (our calculation)Milled rice imports a…*100.0Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 73.4% (2024/25) (our calculation)Cereal imports as a*73.4

Drawn to scale from zero. * Our calculation from the cited figures.

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 73.4% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 1.41% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Wheat imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)
  • Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Adapted from Statistics Canada data, used under the Statistics Canada Open Licence. This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Honduras

Honduras owes the IMF 2.07% of GDP. Its programme of about US$823m was set to end in September 2026, and the government asked the IMF to extend it to 31 Dec 2026; a final review worth about US$120m is under way (reported).est.

Theme band Medium

2.07%

IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP (Nov 2026)

US$245m

US$m agreed on the fourth and fifth IMF reviews (May 2026)

US$120mest.

US$m at stake on the final IMF review (reported)

10.6%

interest, % of government revenue (2020)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • The IMF arrangement was due to end in September 2026; Honduras asked for an extension to 31 Dec 2026 (IMF). An IMF mission arrived on 19 Oct 2026 for the sixth and final review, worth about US$120m (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • IMF credit outstanding is 604.8 million SDR, 2.07% of GDP.
  • Interest took 10.6% of revenue in 2020, the latest World Bank figure; the line caps that band at Medium until refreshed.

Opportunities

  • Net international reserves were about US$11.6bn at end-April 2026 (IMF).
  • Debt counted in default by the Bank of Canada and Bank of England is small: US$21m in 2025, 0.05% of GDP.
  • Public external debt service was 9.3% of exports in 2024, below the line.

Uncertainties

  • The size, type and timing of a new IMF programme are not published. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Figures differ for the fourth and fifth reviews: about US$245m (IMF, May 2026) and about US$242m (press, June 2026). Estimate from press or commentary
  • Ratings come from a secondary list: S&P BB- negative (low confidence). Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • Late 2026IMF Board on the sixth and final review of the 2023 arrangement (reported).
  • 2027Talks on a new IMF programme for the next three years (reported).
  • AnnualWorld Bank interest-to-revenue figure, last published for 2020.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Imf exposureCapital and finance2.07% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPMediumHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
Interest burdenRevenue10.6% of revenue 2020Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)LowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance22.9% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesBelow lineHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
External debt serviceCapital and finance9.3% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeBelow lineHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Default arrearsCapital and finance0.05% of GDP 2025 vs GDP 2025Sovereign debt in default, % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
China creditorDependence2.9% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Public external principal due 2026-2028 and reserves (US$bn)
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$2.34bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due, all creditors, 2026-282.3Projected principal repayments to bondholders on public external debt, 2026-2028: US$0.7bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due to bondholders, 2026-280.7Total reserves including gold: US$10.2bn (2025)Total10.2

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart Bondholders, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 2.07% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 22.9% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Sovereign debt in default, % of GDP: 0.05% of GDP (= debt in default (US$ m) / GDP × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 2.9% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Honduras (HND). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

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Cite this page Strature, “Honduras”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/hnd/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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