El Niño drought pushes Guatemala or Honduras past a food-crisis threshold
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Aug 2027, a published IPC analysis or update projects 3.0 million or more people in Guatemala, or 2.0 million or more in Honduras, in Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse for any period between Nov 2026 and Aug 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
A strong El Niño has dried out Central America's Dry Corridor through 2026. Guatemala's latest food-security analysis projected about 3.2 million people in crisis or worse for July-September 2026, easing to 2.6 million for October 2026-February 2027; Honduras declared a red drought alert in 75 municipalities in August. The 2027 lean season follows a failed first harvest, and NOAA expects strong El Niño conditions into early 2027.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a strong El Niño into early 2027; red drought alerts in Honduras; a second dry year. Brakes: the latest Guatemala projection sits below the line and no cited source projects either line being passed. Two drivers with brakes holding is 4; not an open contest.
The other facts on file (4)
- Guatemala IPC: 2.5 million (14%) in April-June 2026; about 3.2 million (17%) projected for July-September; 2.6 million for October 2026-February 2027 [1] (8 Aug 2026)
- Honduras: 75 municipalities on red drought alert and 71 on yellow; rainfall deficits of 100-200 mm [2] (19 Aug 2026)
- UN anticipatory-action plan announced in April 2026 aimed to protect about 65,000 people in Honduras [2] (19 Aug 2026)
- Honduras: IPC cited at 95,000 people in Phase 4 for April-July 2026; maize and bean output in priority areas expected to fall by more than 40%; 8 of 18 departments hit [4] (28 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Aug 2027, a published IPC analysis or update projects 3.0 million or more people in Guatemala, or 2.0 million or more in Honduras, in Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse for any period between Nov 2026 and Aug 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Food and pricesA second weak harvest raises maize and bean prices for rural households.
- MigrationHunger in the Dry Corridor is a driver of migration north (Strature's view; no sized figure found).
- BudgetsEmergency transfers and food aid draw on national budgets and donors.
Goods 1
- Maize
Sectors 1
- Agriculture and food
Countries 4
- Guatemala primary
- Honduras primary
- El Salvador
- Nicaragua
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua.
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Households
- Goods
- Maize, Coffee
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Relief
The 2027 first-season rains arrive on time and projections stay under the lines.
- S2
Lean-season peak
The 2027 lean season pushes Guatemala back over 3.0 million.
- S3
Regional crisis
Both countries pass their lines and appeals open.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The next Guatemala IPC update keeps the February-May 2027 projection under 3.0 million |
| S2 | A FEWS NET or IPC alert raising projections by May 2027 |
| S3 | A Honduras IPC update above 2.0 million by mid-2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Feb 2027 End of Guatemala's current IPC projection period [1] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 End of the season NOAA's El Niño outlook covers (January-March 2027) [3] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Aug 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Drought years push governments and donors to fund irrigation, water harvesting and drought-tolerant seed (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Guatemala
- Honduras
- El Salvador
- Nicaragua
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The strong El Niño behind the 2026 drought.
- Remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras fall year on year in a quarter Shares a channel: Rural households in the same countries depend on both harvests and remittances.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Guatemala: El Niño amenaza con dejar sin alimento a 3,2 millones de personas. Revista EyN (EFE) · 8 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Gobierno de Honduras apoyará a 75 municipios en alerta roja por sequía. Revista EyN (EFE) · 19 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Alert note: Food Insecurity and Drought Emergency, Honduras (Corredor Seco). ACT Alliance (OCDIH and CASM) · 28 Jul 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El "Súper Niño" 2026-2027 toca a la puerta de Guatemala (boletín técnico). Universidad Rafael Landívar, Iarna, Observatorio de Territorio y Clima · 2026-09 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; trend flat · All risks