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Your exposure · Country · Americas

Bahamas

Interest took 19.98% of The Bahamas' central government revenue in 2024, just under the Medium line, down from 22.14% in 2021. Debt was 74.1% of GDP in FY2024/25. Approved reading

This page answers: Which questions do our briefs address about Bahamas?

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
  • Readings updated
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Your exposure

The Bahamas in our readings

The Bahamas is in 1 of our country readings.

  • Sovereign debt Low

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Not yet set
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Low
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare the Bahamas on the outlook map

Dates for Bahamas on the risk calendar

Risks that reach the Bahamas

  • Sovereign debt Low

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for the Bahamas

All world risks that touch the Bahamas

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much the Bahamas makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

What to watch

  • Quarterly Central Bank of The Bahamas economic reviews: fiscal outturn and debt. Sovereign debt
  • 30 Jun 2027 FY2026/27 ends; the budget projects revenue of B$4.4bn. Sovereign debt
  • 2027 IMF staff projection: debt at 71.4% of GDP. Sovereign debt
  • Each hurricane season Hurricane season; natural disasters are a named downside risk. Sovereign debt

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in the Bahamas?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open the Bahamas on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch the Bahamas.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Bahamas

Interest took 19.98% of The Bahamas' central government revenue in 2024, just under the Medium line, down from 22.14% in 2021. Debt was 74.1% of GDP in FY2024/25.

Theme band Low

20%

of central government revenue went to interest (2024)

74.1%

central government debt, % of GDP (FY2024/25)

18.1%

of revenue went to debt payments, Jul 2025-Mar 2026 (our calculation on press figures)

452est.

B$m of public debt payments, Jul 2025-Mar 2026 (reported)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Interest was at or above 20% of revenue in 2021-2023 (22.14%, 21.18%, 20.07%); a small rise would cross the line again.
  • Debt was 74.1% of GDP in FY2024/25; the IMF says the 50% target needs additional measures and recommends reducing rollover risks.
  • IMF staff name a global slowdown hitting tourism and natural disasters as downside risks.
  • External debt was a reported B$5.4bn of B$12.5bn of central government debt in May 2026. Estimate from press or commentary

Opportunities

  • The deficit narrowed to 0.5% of GDP in FY2024/25, with a primary surplus of 3.7% of GDP.
  • IMF staff project debt falling to 71.4% of GDP in 2027 and 65.8% in 2030.
  • The FY2026/27 budget projects revenue of B$4.4bn against spending of B$4.1bn (press report). Estimate from press or commentary

Uncertainties

  • The World Bank figure rounds to 20.0%, on the Medium line; unrounded, 19.98% is just below it.
  • The B$452m of debt payments in Jul 2025-Mar 2026 reads as interest from the reported deficit and primary surplus; the source does not say so. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Ratings come from a secondary list: S&P BB- and Fitch BB-, both stable (low confidence). Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • QuarterlyCentral Bank of The Bahamas economic reviews: fiscal outturn and debt.
  • 30 Jun 2027FY2026/27 ends; the budget projects revenue of B$4.4bn.
  • 2027IMF staff projection: debt at 71.4% of GDP.
  • Each hurricane seasonHurricane season; natural disasters are a named downside risk.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Interest burdenRevenue20% of revenue 2024Interest payments, % of revenue (central government), unroundedLowHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Central government debt by holder, as reported May 2026 (B$bn)
Central government domestic debt: 7.1 B$ bn (as reported 27 May 2026)Domestic debt7.1Central government external debt: 5.4 B$ bn (as reported 27 May 2026)External debt5.4

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: Our News, Government forecasts lower surplus for 2026/2027 fiscal year (27 May 2026).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • Public debt payments, % of revenue, Jul 2025-Mar 2026: 18.1% of revenue (= 452 / 2500)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Bahamas (BHS). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Bahamas”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/bhs/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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