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Jamaica

Jamaica's debt burden rose with Hurricane Melissa: IMF credit outstanding equals 5.25% of GDP after a US$415m emergency disbursement, and fiscal rules are suspended to 31 Mar 2027. Approved reading

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  • Region Americas · Central America and the Caribbean
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Your exposure

Jamaica in our readings

Jamaica is in 2 of our country readings; High in 2.

  • Sovereign debt High
  • Food and fertiliser High

Each band as published in its reading, against that reading’s stated lines; the readings are never combined into one band.

Outlook to November 2027

  • Geopolitics and conflict Not yet set
  • Trade, tariffs and sanctions Not yet set
  • Supply chains and chokepoints Elevated
  • Energy and resources Not yet set
  • Technology and cyber Not yet set
  • Regulation and compliance Not yet set
  • Finance and markets Elevated
The seven outlooks in full: why, and the index

Seven categories, 12 months ahead. The outlook is our judgement, approved by the Principal. The index measures open data on 0–10; higher means more risk. How they are set

Compare Jamaica on the outlook map

Dates for Jamaica on the risk calendar

Risks that reach Jamaica

  • Sovereign debt High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Show all 2 risks that reach Jamaica
  • Food and fertiliser High

    No forecast in our register is attached to this reading.

Each forecast is our estimate, scored when it resolves, in the register’s own words.

World risks for Jamaica

All world risks that touch Jamaica

Goods and chokepoints

Exhibit S-1 · Supply balance

How much Jamaica makes, buys and sells, good by good

Consumption = production + imports − exports (± stock change).
Reading the supply balance

Supply balance first, suppliers second.

One card per good, each in its own unit. Goods are never added together.

Each card shows the latest complete period: the newest with consumption and at least one of production, imports and exports on file.

Figures of 1,000 kb/d or more show in million barrels a day (mb/d).

Periods are marketing years, as published.

What to watch

  • 31 Mar 2027 The fiscal rules suspension ends unless parliament extends it. Sovereign debt
  • Before 31 Mar 2027 Any parliamentary vote on a further suspension into FY2027-28. Sovereign debt
  • FY2029/30 Year set for the 60% of GDP debt target after the suspension. Sovereign debt
  • 4 Dec 2026 FAO Food Price Index for November. Food and fertiliser
  • 10 Dec 2026 USDA WASDE for December. Food and fertiliser

Questions firms in this position often review

  • Which of the risks above reach our own suppliers, customers or assets in Jamaica?
  • Which dated items under What to watch fall inside our next planning cycle?

General research, not advice. Request a free pilot

Full analyst view

Open Jamaica on the map of brief questions

Country analysis

Questions our briefs address

The questions our published briefs address that touch Jamaica.

Food and fertiliser · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Food and fertiliser: what is at stake for Jamaica

Jamaica imports all the grain it eats: 317 kt of maize, 177 kt of wheat and 100 kt of rice in 2024/25. A world grain price shock would reach it in full.

Theme band High

100%

of grain use met by imports (2024/25)

317

kt of maize imported (2024/25)

0.9%

of GDP, staple import bill (2024 prices)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Imports meet all grain use (2024/25), so a lost cargo could not be replaced from a local harvest.
  • US wheat averaged US$430.0/t in 2022, 36% above 2021; a repeat would land in full on 177 kt of wheat imports.
  • Jamaica imports all its rice; the Thai benchmark rose from US$436.8/t in 2022 to US$588.4/t in 2024 while India restricted rice exports in 2022 and 2023.
  • Soybean oil imports were 31 kt in 2024/25, exposed to the same world price cycle as grain.

Opportunities

  • The staple import bill is small, 0.9% of GDP on 2024 prices (about US$0.20bn), below the bill line.
  • Fertiliser exposure is small: farms used 3,789 t of nitrogen in 2024 (FAOSTAT).

Uncertainties

  • USDA's balance covers four grains; grain use outside them is not measured here.
  • Wheat and maize origins by country are not on file from an open source, so the share from any one origin is not measured.

What to watch

  • 6 Nov 2026FAO Food Price Index for October: cereals.
  • 10 Nov 2026USDA WASDE: world wheat, maize and rice balances for the new season.
  • 4 Dec 2026FAO Food Price Index for November.
  • 10 Dec 2026USDA WASDE for December.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Cereal import dependenceDependence100% 2024/25Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley)HighHigh ≥70% · Medium 40–70% · Low 25–40%
Staple import billRevenue0.9% of GDP 2024/25 volumes, 2024 pricesStaple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDPBelow lineHigh ≥4% of GDP · Medium 2–4% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

Grain imports, 2024/25 (kt)
Corn (maize) imports: 317 1000 t (2024/25)Corn (maize) imports317Wheat imports: 177 1000 t (2024/25)Wheat imports177Milled rice imports: 100 1000 t (2024/25)Milled rice imports100

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Corn (maize), Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Wheat, Imports; USDA FAS, Production, Supply and Distribution (PSD Online): Milled rice, Imports.

Sources cited

Our calculations

  • Cereal imports as a share of domestic cereal consumption (wheat, maize, rice, barley): 100% (= 100 × sum of imports / sum of domestic consumption, four grains, capped at 100)
  • Staple import bill (wheat, maize, rice, barley, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil) as % of GDP: 0.9% of GDP (= sum(PSD imports × Pink Sheet 2024 annual price) / GDP 2024)
  • Milled rice imports as a share of domestic consumption: 100% (= 100 × imports / domestic consumption)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

Sovereign debt · Strature analysis, not from the brief

Sovereign debt: what is at stake for Jamaica

Jamaica's debt burden rose with Hurricane Melissa: IMF credit outstanding equals 5.25% of GDP after a US$415m emergency disbursement, and fiscal rules are suspended to 31 Mar 2027.est.

Theme band High

5.25%

IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP (Nov 2026)

US$415m

IMF emergency disbursement, US$m (16 Jan 2026)

65.9%

Public debt, % of GDP, FY2026/27 (IMF projection)

22.4%

Interest, % of central government revenue (2020)

Read the full panel

Risks

  • Fiscal rules are suspended to 31 Mar 2027. On 27 Oct 2026 the government said it is likely to seek a further suspension into FY2027-28 (reported). Estimate from press or commentary
  • The IMF projects public debt at 68.6% of GDP in 2025/26, up from 62.4% in 2024/25.
  • Public external debt service took 14.6% of exports in 2024, US$1.12bn.
  • Interest took 22.4% of central government revenue in 2020, the latest World Bank figure.

Opportunities

  • The IMF projects debt back down to 65.9% of GDP in 2026/27.
  • Bond principal due in 2026-2028 is even, at about US$0.4bn a year.
  • The emergency loan of SDR 306.32 million, 80 percent of quota, came through the IMF's natural disaster window.

Uncertainties

  • The interest figure dates from 2020, which caps that line at Medium until it is refreshed.
  • The opposition argued in Mar 2026 that the law allows no further suspension (Jamaica Observer, as reported); no vote was found as of 3 Nov 2026. Estimate from press or commentary
  • Jamaica's Independent Fiscal Commission put the hurricane's fiscal impact at 5.3% of GDP over 2025-26 to 2029-30 (as reported). Estimate from press or commentary

What to watch

  • 31 Mar 2027The fiscal rules suspension ends unless parliament extends it.
  • Before 31 Mar 2027Any parliamentary vote on a further suspension into FY2027-28.
  • FY2029/30Year set for the 60% of GDP debt target after the suspension.

Exposure by channel

Exposure band per channel, with the figure and the published line
ChannelFigureBandPublished line
Imf exposureCapital and finance5.25% of GDP Nov 2026 credit vs GDP 2025IMF credit outstanding, % of GDPHighHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 2–5% of GDP · Low 1–2% of GDP, or <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
Interest burdenRevenue22.4% of revenue 2020Interest payments, % of revenue (central government)MediumHigh ≥30% · Medium 20–30% · Low 10–20%
External debt serviceCapital and finance14.6% of exports 2024Public and publicly guaranteed external debt service, % of exports of goods, services and primary incomeLowHigh ≥21% · Medium 15–21% · Low 10–15%
Refinancing wallCapital and finance33.8% of reserves 2026-2028 vs reserves 2025External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reservesLowHigh ≥100% · Medium 50–100% · Low 25–50%
Default arrearsCapital and financeUS$0m 2025 (preliminary)Sovereign debt in default (all creditors)Below lineHigh ≥5% of GDP · Medium 1–5% of GDP · Low <1% of GDP but ≥US$1bn
China creditorDependence6.7% of PPG external debt 2024Share of public external debt owed to ChinaBelow lineHigh ≥33% · Medium 20–33% · Low 10–20%

Bands follow the published materiality lines for this theme. A low-confidence figure alone caps a band at Medium.

External public principal due 2026-2028 and reserves (US$bn)
Projected principal repayments on public and publicly guaranteed external debt, 2026-2028 (all creditors): US$2.13bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due, all creditors, 2026-282.13Projected principal repayments to bondholders on public external debt, 2026-2028: US$1.18bn (2026-2028 (projected on end-2024 stock))Principal due to bondholders, 2026-281.18Total reserves including gold: US$6.3bn (2025)Total6.30

Drawn to scale from zero. Source: World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart World, projected); World Bank, International Debt Statistics (DT.AMT.DPPG.CD, counterpart Bondholders, projected); World Bank, World Development Indicators (FI.RES.TOTL.CD).

Sources cited

Estimates from press or commentary

Our calculations

  • IMF credit outstanding, % of GDP: 5.25% of GDP (= IMF credit (SDR) × US$ per SDR / GDP × 100)
  • External public principal due 2026-2028, % of reserves: 33.8% of reserves (= projected PPG principal 2026-2028 / total reserves × 100)
  • Share of public external debt owed to China: 6.7% of PPG external debt (= debt owed to China / PPG external debt × 100)

Strature analysis, not from the brief: researched by Strature from public sources and kept in our country dossier, updated 3 Nov 2026. General research, not advice.

ISO 3166-1 name: Jamaica (JAM). Country and territory names follow common usage and imply no position on sovereignty.

Sources and licences

No figure on this page yet.

Cite this page Strature, “Jamaica”, Strature GPS, https://strature.net/gps/jam/, 11 Nov 2026.

  • General research, not advice.
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