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World risk · Energy and resources

Jamaica's Hermitage Dam, Kingston's main reservoir, falls below a quarter full

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, a National Water Commission (NWC) or water-ministry reading puts the Hermitage Dam below 25% of capacity.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. NWC home page showed Hermitage 57% (Mona 43.4%), then 58.4% (Mona 44.8%) on a second read the same day; readings undated [5]
  2. Hermitage 44.9%, Mona 36.3%; restrictions remain [4]
  3. Strong to very strong El Nino expected through January-March 2027 [8]
  4. Hermitage 40.2%, Mona 33.7%; 107 of 150 NWC systems hit by drought; Hermitage supplies over 40% of the Kingston area's population; the minister warned of the worst drought ever experienced [1]
  5. NWC prohibition orders since 17 Aug 2026 bar non-essential use in seven parishes; on 30 Sep the minister warned of tighter limits on supply hours within a week or two and possible day-on, day-off supply; the Rio Cobre plant (15 million gallons a day) is due in May 2027 [2]

Why it matters

Jamaica has been under drought restrictions since August 2026, and the water minister has warned that El Nino could bring the worst drought the island has known. Kingston's main reservoir, the Hermitage Dam, fell to 31.4% in August but has refilled since, to about 57-58% on the water company's undated home-page reading. The test is the December-April dry season under a strong El Nino.

Why Likelihood 3 One in about 25 years (2009-10). Push: one cited driver, a strong El Nino into the December-April dry season; the minister's warning describes the same driver. Brake in force on the card's own facts: storage has risen since August, and restrictions slow the draw. But that is the driver's reach, not a second driver.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Hermitage Dam at 65.4% of its 393.5 million-gallon capacity; restrictions for some Corporate Area customers from 3 Jul [9] (30 Jun 2026)
  • Hermitage Dam at 31.4% of capacity, with revised supply schedules from 24 Aug [3] (23 Aug 2026)
  • Hermitage fell to 22% in the 2009-10 drought, the lowest for any extended period in 25 years [6] (5 Jun 2010)
  • Hermitage touched 25% in August 2018 and was at 76% by late October 2018 [7] (30 Oct 2018)

Where it sits

CUBAHONDURASNICARAGUADOMINICAN REPUBLICHAITI11. Jamaica's Hermitage Dam, Kingston's main reservoir, falls below a quarter full: Elevated impact · unlikely (Hermitage Dam)1 Kingston reservoirruns lowElevated impact · unlikely · Hermitage DamKINGSTON RESERVOIR RUNS LOW0500 kmat 18°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
CUBADOMINICAN REPUBLICHAITI11. Jamaica's Hermitage Dam, Kingston's main reservoir, falls below a quarter full: Elevated impact · unlikely (Hermitage Dam)1 Kingstonreservoir runs lowKINGSTON RESERVOIR RUNS LOW0500 kmat 18°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, a National Water Commission (NWC) or water-ministry reading puts the Hermitage Dam below 25% of capacity.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Water supplyHermitage serves more than 40% of the Kingston area's population; a fall below a quarter means tighter rationing and trucked water [1].
  3. Trucked waterSome usually well-supplied areas already rely on trucked water from 18 NWC trucks and 52 private units [2]; a deeper fall widens that.
  4. ReliefThe Rio Cobre treatment plant is not due until May 2027 [2].

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Jamaica.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Rains hold

    Storage stays well above a quarter through the dry season.

  2. S2

    Dry-season fall

    A dry winter pulls Hermitage below 25% by March-April.

  3. S3

    Managed scarcity

    Storage falls but stays above 25% under deeper rationing.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1NWC readings above 50% in January 2027
S2A reading below 35% in February 2027
S3New NWC supply schedules for Kingston in early 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 12 Nov 2026 NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion [8] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. May 2027 Rio Cobre treatment plant due [2] Tentative · Strature date
  3. 31 Jul 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Window

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JAMAICA · strature.net

The other side

Storage has risen since August, from 31.4% to about 57-58% [3][5], and restrictions already slow the draw [4]. In 2018 the dam recovered from 25% to 76% in two months [7].

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Drought drains 107 water systems. Jamaica Gleaner · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Samuda warns tougher water restrictions coming in weeks amid ongoing drought. Jamaica Gleaner · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Hermitage Dam at 31.4%, NWC tightens water supply to sections of Kingston and St Andrew. Jamaica Gleaner · 23 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. NWC says recent rains insufficient to ease Corporate Area water restrictions. Jamaica Gleaner · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Dam & Reservoir Levels. National Water Commission · 4 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Lead story on the 2009-10 drought. Jamaica Gleaner · 5 Jun 2010 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. Tremendous improvement in water levels at reservoirs - Buchanan. Jamaica Gleaner · 30 Oct 2018 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  8. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ENSO diagnostic discussion). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  9. Hermitage Dam decline triggers water restrictions in some Corporate Area. Jamaica Gleaner · 30 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks