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World risk · Finance and markets

The Bank of Jamaica raises its policy rate again, to 6.50% or more

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Bank of Jamaica announces a policy rate of 6.50% or higher.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth4
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Announcements left in 2026: 18 Nov and 18 Dec [2]
  2. September 2026 inflation 8.6%, the highest since December 2022 (STATIN, 15 Oct 2026); analysts cited by Radio Jamaica suggest another rise is possible [4]
  3. The Monetary Policy Committee (24-25 Sep 2026) unanimously raised the policy rate by 50 basis points to 6.0%, effective 29 Sep 2026, to limit second-round effects on inflation [1]
  4. Reasons given: commodity prices pushed up by Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions, El Nino keeping farm prices high for longer, tighter global financial conditions; headline inflation 7.9% in August (7.5% in July), core 5.2% [1]
  5. The Bank expects inflation to rise further near term and return to target by mid-2027, core to stay above target, risks skewed to the upside; it will deploy additional tools if necessary [1]

Why it matters

The Bank of Jamaica raised its policy rate by half a point to 6.0% in September 2026, after a cut to 5.50% in February, as inflation climbed above its 4-6% target. Inflation rose again in September, to 8.6%. The Bank gave no guidance on another rise, and it expects inflation back in its target range by mid-2027.

Why Likelihood 4 So not below 3; more than 24 months back, so C is no. Pushes: inflation still rising; upside risks and a stated readiness to act; analysts' relayed view that a further rise is possible. Brakes: the Bank's own path back to target by mid-2027; its 'additional tools' need not be the rate.

Why Impact 4 Key price the policy rate: 6.00% to 6.50% is an 8.3% move.

The other facts on file (2)
  • The MPC (26-27 Sep 2024) cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%, effective 1 Oct 2024 [7] (27 Sep 2024)
  • In February 2026 the Bank cut the rate to 5.50%, with inflation at 3.9% [3] (23 Feb 2026)

Where it sits

JAMAICA11. The Bank of Jamaica raises its policy rate again, to 6.50% or more: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 The Bank of Jamaicaraises its policy rate again,to 6.50% or moreElevated impact · possibleJAMAICA RAISES RATES AGAIN0250 kmat 18°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
JAMAICA11. The Bank of Jamaica raises its policy rate again, to 6.50% or more: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Jamaica raisesrates againJAMAICA RAISES RATES AGAIN0200 kmat 18°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Bank of Jamaica announces a policy rate of 6.50% or higher.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. CreditA higher policy rate raises borrowing costs for households and firms in an economy rebuilding after Hurricane Melissa [1].
  3. PricesA second rise would signal that the Bank sees the price shock as lasting longer than its mid-2027 path [1].

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Jamaica.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Hold and wait

    Inflation peaks late in 2026 and the rate stays at 6.0%.

  2. S2

    One more step

    Inflation keeps rising and the Bank adds 25-50 basis points.

  3. S3

    Other tools

    The Bank uses liquidity or foreign-exchange tools instead of the rate.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The decision of 18 Nov 2026
S2October inflation above 8.6% before the 18 Dec 2026 decision
S3An announcement of foreign-exchange sales or open-market steps in November or December 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 18 Nov 2026 Bank of Jamaica policy rate announcement [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 18 Dec 2026 Bank of Jamaica policy rate announcement [2] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · JAMAICA · strature.net

The other side

The Bank itself expects inflation to return to target by mid-2027 and named 'additional tools', not the rate, as its next step [1]. Part of the price rise comes from food and transport shocks that a rate rise does not reach quickly [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Monetary Policy Press Release - September 2026. Bank of Jamaica · 28 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. 2026 Monetary Policy Announcement Schedule. Bank of Jamaica · 14 Nov 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Summary of Decisions - February 2026. Bank of Jamaica · 23 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Jamaica inflation hits 8.6 percent September 2026. The Rio Times · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Monetary Policy Press Release - September 2024. Bank of Jamaica · 27 Sep 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks