Honduras has no new IMF arrangement by 30 Jun 2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, the IMF Executive Board has approved no new arrangement (lending or precautionary) for Honduras, judged on that date.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- The 2023 arrangement expired in September 2026; an October mission for the sixth and final review, worth about US$120m; pending benchmarks include the Energy Justice Law passed in August [1]
Why it matters
Honduras's 2023 IMF arrangement expired in September 2026, and an IMF mission arrived in October for its sixth and final review. The Asfura government has sent a letter of intent and is preparing to negotiate a three-year successor, reported as precautionary, for 2027-2030. The risk is that no new arrangement reaches the IMF Board by mid-2027.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: talks not started; a precautionary arrangement with no amount set. Brakes: the government's request and a record of completed reviews, the latest in June 2026.
The other facts on file (5)
- IMF: Honduras' 36-month arrangements total about US$847m (SDR 624.5m), approved on 21 Sep 2023 [6] (29 Jun 2026)
- Staff-level agreement on the fourth and fifth reviews, about US$245m on Board approval expected by end-June 2026 [3] (11 May 2026)
- IMF Board completed the fourth and fifth reviews, releasing about US$242m (SDR 178.4m); extension of the arrangements requested [4] (29 Jun 2026)
- Honduras owed the IMF SDR 456.9m on 31 Mar 2026 [5] (31 Mar 2026)
- Honduras preparing to negotiate a three-year precautionary arrangement for 2027-2030, amount not set; talks could start in late 2026 or early 2027; letter of intent sent in June 2026 [2] (10 Sep 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 30 Jun 2027, the IMF Executive Board has approved no new arrangement (lending or precautionary) for Honduras, judged on that date.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Budget anchorWithout a programme, the budget and the energy-sector reforms lose an outside anchor.
- LendersMultilateral and bond lenders price Honduras with or without an IMF arrangement; no sized figure was found.
- Energy sectorThe state power company's reforms are tied to programme benchmarks [1].
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Honduras primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Honduras.
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Public sector, Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Smooth handover
The sixth review closes and a successor reaches the Board by mid-2027.
- S2
Slip
Talks run past June 2027 over energy or fiscal terms.
- S3
No programme
The government chooses to go without one.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A staff-level agreement on a new arrangement by April 2027 |
| S2 | No staff-level agreement by May 2027 |
| S3 | A public statement that no new arrangement is sought |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Successor talks could start (late 2026 or early 2027) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Jun 2027 Date the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A precautionary arrangement, if agreed, would signal that Honduras no longer needs IMF money, which lenders tend to read well (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Honduras
- El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: The same IMF anchor for a neighbouring economy's budget; lenders read a stall in either case across the region (Strature's view).
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Honduras afronta última revisión de acuerdo con FMI para acceder a US$120 millones. Revista EyN (EFE) · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Honduras prepara negociar un nuevo acuerdo con el FMI por 36 meses. Revista EyN · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Honduras: IMF staff reaches staff-level agreement on the fourth and fifth reviews (ECF/EFF). International Monetary Fund · 11 May 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Honduras: Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements. International Monetary Fund · 2026-06 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Honduras. International Monetary Fund · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- IMF Executive Board Completes Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements for Honduras. International Monetary Fund · 29 Jun 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks