El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board completes no further review of El Salvador's Extended Fund Facility, or the arrangement is cancelled.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↓ 1 Oct 2026: IMF Board completed the second and third reviews with waivers (score down)
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- 40-month EFF approved 26 Feb 2025, access SDR 1,033.92m (about US$1.4bn); 2nd and 3rd reviews completed, SDR 101.96m (about US$138m) released; waivers on bitcoin accumulation criteria [1]
- IMF projects primary surplus 2.9% of GDP (2026) and 3.7% (2027); gross debt 85.0% and 89.2%; US$2.3bn unpaid pension-fund interest recognised in 2027 [1]
Why it matters
On 1 Oct 2026 the IMF Board completed the second and third reviews of El Salvador's 40-month Extended Fund Facility together, about 15 months after the first, and waived missed performance criteria on bitcoin accumulation. The programme runs to mid-2028 and further reviews are due. An election-year budget and the bitcoin question could stall it again.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a 15-month gap between reviews already happened; the bitcoin breach that needed a waiver; an election-year budget. Brake: the waiver and the IMF statement show both sides want the programme to continue.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one review not completed.
The other facts on file (2)
- First review completed with the 2025 Article IV; SDR 86.16m (about US$118m) released; IMF urged early unwinding of the public role in Chivo [2] (27 Jun 2025)
- Nuevas Ideas ratified Bukele for a third consecutive term; general election 28 Feb 2027; 2025 reforms removed re-election limits and the runoff, six-year term [3] (13 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · El Salvador
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board completes no further review of El Salvador's Extended Fund Facility, or the arrangement is cancelled.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- MoneyA stalled review delays tranches of the remaining EFF access [1].
- MarketsA stall would weaken the IMF anchor for the debt path (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- El Salvador primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- El Salvador
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On track
The fourth review completes in 2027.
- S2
Election slip
Spending around the vote delays the review past the window.
- S3
Bitcoin breach
New public bitcoin purchases breach the criteria again.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An IMF staff-level agreement statement |
| S2 | No IMF staff mission statement by mid-2027 |
| S3 | A government bitcoin purchase announcement |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 28 Feb 2027 General election (TSE calendar, as reported) [4] Declared · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The waiver shows both sides want the programme to continue, and a review on time would lower borrowing costs (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track Shares a channel: The same IMF EFF review and waiver mechanism in another Latin American programme.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- El Salvador: IMF concludes 2nd and 3rd reviews under the EFF (PR 26/316). International Monetary Fund · 1 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- IMF concludes 2025 Article IV consultation and first review under the EFF for El Salvador (PR 25/223). International Monetary Fund · 27 Jun 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Nuevas Ideas confirma a Bukele como candidato para las elecciones de El Salvador en 2027. Bloomberg Línea · 13 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- TSE officially presents the electoral calendar for the 2027 elections. dinero.com.sv · 12 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks