The US ends Temporary Protected Status for Salvadorans
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US Department of Homeland Security publishes a Federal Register notice terminating El Salvador's TPS designation, whatever the effective date.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Without a timely determination, a designation is extended automatically for 6 months; a termination takes effect no earlier than 60 days after publication [7]
- Remittances to El Salvador US$7,619.9m in Jan-Sep 2026, up 3.5%, against 18.5% a year earlier [5]
- USCIS's El Salvador page says holders retain protection including work authorization until an announcement [2]
- Politico reported that DHS and USCIS cleared a termination notice and the White House delayed it indefinitely [3]
Why it matters
About 200,000 Salvadorans in the US hold Temporary Protected Status, and the designation passed its 9 Sep 2026 end date with no public decision. The US has ended the status for more than a dozen other countries, and a termination notice for El Salvador was reported cleared and then held by the White House. Remittances were about a quarter of El Salvador's GDP in 2025.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: terminations for over a dozen countries; court backing; an official's remark; a termination notice reported cleared. Brakes: the White House hold and close ties between the two governments. Leaning towards it on few named sources, so 6, not 7.
The other facts on file (3)
- About 200,000 Salvadorans hold TPS; DHS has ended TPS for more than one million people from over a dozen countries; remittances US$9.9bn in 2025, about 24% of GDP [1] (11 Sep 2026)
- The Ninth Circuit stayed an order that had vacated the end of TPS for Honduras, Nicaragua and Nepal [4] (9 Feb 2026)
- El Salvador's TPS designation extended from 10 Mar 2025 through 9 Sep 2026 (90 FR 5953) [6] (17 Jan 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the US Department of Homeland Security publishes a Federal Register notice terminating El Salvador's TPS designation, whatever the effective date.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- PeopleAbout 200,000 people would lose protection and work permits on the effective date [1].
- RemittancesRemittances were US$9.9bn in 2025, about 24% of GDP, by central bank data [1]; growth slowed to 3.5% in Jan-Sep 2026 [5].
- US employersEmployers of TPS holders would lose staff; Texas has the second-largest Salvadoran population [3].
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 2
- El Salvador primary
- United States
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Quiet roll
No notice; the status rolls by six months at a time.
- S2
Termination
DHS publishes a termination notice with a wind-down of at least 60 days [7].
- S3
Court fight
A notice is published and challenged.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No Federal Register notice by 9 Mar 2027 |
| S2 | A Federal Register notice |
| S3 | A suit naming El Salvador's TPS |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 9 Mar 2027 About the end of the six-month statutory roll, if no action is taken [1] Tentative · Window
- 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- El Salvador
- United States
- Remittances to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras fall year on year in a quarter Drives: TPS holders' transfers are part of the remittance flow that card scores.
- El Salvador's IMF programme stalls: no further review completed by 1 Nov 2027 Shares a channel: Both cards bear on El Salvador's dollar inflows.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 200,000 Salvadorans hopeful of protection from deportation. Jamaica Gleaner (AP) · 11 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Temporary Protected Status Designated Country: El Salvador. USCIS · 7 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Temporary Protected Status for El Salvador extended until further notice. Immigration Policy Tracking Project · 29 Sep 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Court says US can end Honduran, Nicaraguan, Nepalese migrant protections. The Peninsula (AFP) · 10 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- El Salvador: crecimiento de remesas se desacelera a 3,5% a septiembre. Revista EyN · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Extension of the Designation of El Salvador for Temporary Protected Status. Federal Register (DHS) · 17 Jan 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- 8 U.S. Code § 1254a, Temporary protected status. Legal Information Institute · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks