The end of Bolivia's fuel subsidy brings a week of national road blockades
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, unions or civic groups block main highways in at least three of Bolivia's nine departments for 7 or more days in a row.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- IMF projects 2026 real GDP down 3.3% and consumer prices up 20.7% [5]
- COB leader said on 15 Oct 2026 he would not join new protests; teachers' 24-hour national strike on 23 Oct (advocacy outlet) [6]
- IMF board approved a 36-month EFF of SDR 1.369bn (about US$1.9bn), about US$214m at once [4]
- Congress approved a US$1.9bn IMF loan (about 18 Sep 2026); MAS holds 2 of 130 lower-house seats; Paz has raised fuel prices and plans to end the subsidy by January; COB condemns the plan; blockades disrupted much of the country in June-July 2026; emergency extended 90 days on 17 Sep [1]
- Santa Cruz moto-taxi unions called off an indefinite blockade set for 11 Sep 2026 after talks with the hydrocarbons minister; reassess on 10 Oct; Comite pro Santa Cruz called for wider mobilisation [3]
Why it matters
Bolivia's Congress approved a US$1.9bn IMF loan in September 2026; President Rodrigo Paz has already raised fuel prices and plans to end the subsidy entirely by January, and the main union federation (COB) condemns the plan. Road blockades disrupted much of the country in June and July 2026. Six days of blockades in January forced Paz to annul his first decree.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the January subsidy step; COB opposition; a shrinking economy. Brakes: state of emergency; the COB leader's 15 Oct refusal to join protests (low-confidence source); Congress backs the loan.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a week of blockades in three departments.
The other facts on file (1)
- January 2026: six days of blockades; Paz annulled his December decree; replacement agreed with unions kept the end of fuel subsidies; prices 86-162% higher [2] (15 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The end of Bolivia's fuel subsidy brings a week of national road blockadesImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Bolivia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, unions or civic groups block main highways in at least three of Bolivia's nine departments for 7 or more days in a row.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Trade and foodBlocked highways stop freight and supplies across departments, as in June and July [1].
- The IMF programmeA government retreat would put the subsidy step in doubt (Strature's view).
Goods 1
- Diesel
Sectors 2
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
Countries 1
- Bolivia primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Bolivia
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Mining and metals
- Goods
- Diesel
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Managed exit
Prices rise in steps with transfers; protests stay local.
- S2
National blockade
The COB and civic groups block highways for a week or more.
- S3
Retreat
Paz suspends the step, as in January.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The January price step passes without a national strike |
| S2 | A COB strike call |
| S3 | A new decree |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 State of emergency extended by 90 days from about 17 Sep runs out [1] Tentative · Outside event
- Jan 2027 Planned full end of the fuel subsidy [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [5] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Argentina needs another IMF waiver to keep its programme on track Shares a channel: An IMF programme's reform steps under street pressure in a neighbour.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Bolivia's Congress approves $1.9bn IMF loan amid protest threats (AP). Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia declares 'energy and social emergency' after widespread protests. Buenos Aires Herald · 15 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia dodged blockade this week; truce runs out October 10th. Latin Times · 12 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- IMF approves 36-month Extended Fund Facility arrangement for Bolivia. Report.az · 3 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia country page (projections). International Monetary Fund · 1 Nov 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia: teachers' strike and protests against price rises (Spanish edition; first published in English 16 Oct 2026). World Socialist Web Site · 27 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks