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World risk · Regulation and compliance

An Eastern Caribbean state commits to close its citizenship-by-investment programme

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the government of at least one of Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis or Saint Lucia announces, or confirms to the European Commission in a statement it makes public, that it will close its CBI programme to new applications by a set date, or passes a law that does so.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth1
Duration9
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 6 to 5.
  2. Browne on radio, 24 Oct 2026: preliminary cabinet talks favour confirming the phase-out; reply due 12 Nov; no final decision [7]

Why it matters

The European Commission says running a citizenship-by-investment (CBI) scheme is in itself a ground to suspend visa-free travel, and names the five Eastern Caribbean states that run one. Antigua and Barbuda says the Commission asked it to phase out its programme by 1 Jun 2028. Closing would keep Schengen access but end revenue that topped a fifth of GDP in one state in 2023.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the EU rule; the Commission's request; Antigua's cabinet leaning towards confirming; US visa restrictions on two of the five. Brakes: Antigua's July statement refusing a unilateral phase-out; the joint call for alternative financing; deep revenue dependence.

The other facts on file (7)
  • Commission: operating an investor citizenship scheme is in itself a ground for suspension; about 107,000 passports issued by the five; 13,113 applications in 2023 and 10,573 in 2024 [1] (19 Dec 2025)
  • Revised visa suspension mechanism in force from 30 Dec 2025 [3] (7 Jul 2026)
  • Antigua and Barbuda: Commission letter of 25 Jun 2026 asks for a phase-out by 1 Jun 2028 [3] (7 Jul 2026)
  • Five heads of government meet in Roseau on 10 Jul 2026, agree a Brussels mission and ask for alternative financing [4] (13 Jul 2026)
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis CBI fees 21.7% of GDP in 2023 and 9.0% in 2024 [5] (13 May 2025)
  • Grenada government CBI revenue 14.7% of GDP in 2024 [6] (21 Jan 2026)
  • US proclamation of 16 Dec 2025 restricts immigrant and B, F, M and J visas for Antigua and Barbuda and Dominica from 1 Jan 2026 [8] (19 Dec 2025)

Where it sits

11. An Eastern Caribbean state commits to close its citizenship-by-investment programme: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Caribbean CBI closurepledgeElevated impact · possibleCARIBBEAN CBI CLOSURE PLEDGE0250 kmat 17°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. An Eastern Caribbean state commits to close its citizenship-by-investment programme: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Caribbean CBIclosure pledgeCARIBBEAN CBI CLOSURE PLEDGE0200 kmat 17°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the government of at least one of Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis or Saint Lucia announces, or confirms to the European Commission in a statement it makes public, that it will close its CBI programme to new applications by a set date, or passes a law that does so.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesCBI fees were 21.7% of Saint Kitts and Nevis's GDP in 2023 [5]; Grenada's CBI revenue was 14.7% of GDP in 2024 [6].
  3. DebtThe IMF sees Saint Kitts and Nevis's debt above 70% of GDP by 2030 on lower CBI revenue [5].
  4. TravelA commitment is the route the Commission set for keeping visa-free access [3].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 5

  • Antigua and Barbuda primary
  • Dominica primary
  • Grenada primary
  • Saint Kitts and Nevis primary
  • Saint Lucia primary

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Pledge

    One or more states confirm a closing date and seek EU support for replacement revenue.

  2. S2

    Holdout

    The five keep the programmes and negotiate caps or nationality exclusions.

  3. S3

    Suspension track

    The Commission moves to suspend visa-free travel for one state.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Antigua's reply to the Commission made public
S2The Commission's next visa suspension report, planned for December 2026
S3A Commission implementing act naming a Caribbean state

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 12 Nov 2026 Reply to the Commission due, as Antigua's prime minister described it [7] Tentative · Strature date

    Remind me

  2. Dec 2026 Commission's next visa suspension mechanism report [3] Tentative · Strature date
  3. 1 Jun 2028 Phase-out date the Commission asked for [3] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

The five raised their minimum investment to US$200,000 and tightened screening [1]. IMI Daily reported (29 Jul 2026) that they agreed a regional regulator in September 2025, a base for reform [9].

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Eighth report under the visa suspension mechanism, COM(2025) 792 final. European Commission · 19 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. End CBI by June 2028 or Risk Schengen Access: EU Writes to Caribbean States, Antigua Says. IMI Daily · 7 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Statement by Participating Heads of Government of CIP on European Union. Government of Saint Lucia, Department of External Affairs · 13 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with St. Kitts and Nevis. IMF · 13 May 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Grenada. IMF · 21 Jan 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Antigua Leans Toward Ending CIP in 2028, With Confirmation to EU Due November 12. IMI Daily · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. Prime Ministers of Antigua, Dominica respond to US travel ban. Searchlight · 19 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  8. EU Wants Caribbean CBI Gone Regardless of Reforms, Saint Lucia Says. IMI Daily · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 6 to 5 · All risks