Yemen's rial in Aden weakens past 2,000 per US dollar
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the rial (new notes, government areas) trades weaker than 2,000 per US$ for 7 days in a row, on the ACAPS tracker or two sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
The rial in government areas traded at about 1,597 per US dollar on 2 Nov 2026, and FAO calls it broadly stable. In late July 2025 it came close to 3,000 before central bank measures pulled it back. A widening war could push it past 2,000 again, raising the price of imported food and fuel (Strature's view).
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a widening war; the 2025 precedent. Brakes: a stable rate for over a year.
Why Impact 5 Key price: the rial in Aden; 2,000 against 1,597 is a 25% move, and against FAO's August rate of about 1,555 a 29% move.
The other facts on file (1)
- Banking sources in Aden said the dollar traded at about 2,290 rials on 30 Jul 2025 after nearly reaching 3,000 the week before [3] (30 Jul 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the rial (new notes, government areas) trades weaker than 2,000 per US$ for 7 days in a row, on the ACAPS tracker or two sources.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- PricesA rial a quarter weaker raises the local price of imported food and fuel (Strature's view).
- SalariesPublic wages paid in rials lose value (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 2
- Yemen primary
- Saudi Arabia
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Yemen, Saudi Arabia.
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Agriculture and food
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Stable band
The rate holds near 1,550-1,600.
- S2
Slide
War spending pushes the rate towards 1,800.
- S3
Break
The rate passes 2,000 for a week, as in 2025.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The ACAPS tracker each month |
| S2 | A reading above 1,800 |
| S3 | New emergency central bank measures |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
The rate in August 2026 was stronger than a year earlier, and FAO calls it broadly stable [2]. A stronger rial would cut import costs (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Yemen
- Saudi Arabia
- Houthi forces take Marib city Driven by: A lost Marib would cut the government's own oil revenue.
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Shares a channel: The war on the coast raises import and insurance costs.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Yemen Analysis Hub: exchange rates and commodities tracker. ACAPS · 2 Nov 2026 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- GIEWS Country Brief: Yemen. FAO · 13 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Aden exchange-rate report. South24 Center · 30 Jul 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Yemen army says it is ready as Houthis mass forces around Marib. Arab News · 14 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks