Houthi forces take Marib city
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Houthi forces take control of the city of Marib, as the government concedes or two independent sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Near-daily Houthi missile and drone attacks hit Saudi airports, ports and oil sites in October; Saudi-led strikes continue [4]
- Pakistan and Türkiye agreed on 5 Oct 2026 to provide forces for rapid deployment to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement [3]
- Army spokesman Brig. Yahya Al-Hatemi said the new pressure will be directed at Marib and that the air force had been revived [2]
Why it matters
Oil-rich Marib is held by Yemen's government. Houthi forces attacked camps in the province in August 2026 and were reported massing there in September; the army says it expects the new pressure at Marib. Saudi air power, new partner forces and the failure of the 2021-22 offensive stand in the way.
Why Likelihood 3 Driver: the offensive's gains and the build-up around Marib. Brakes: Saudi air power and its red line; the reactivated air force; new partner forces; the 2021-22 failure.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case: the city taken.
The other facts on file (1)
- On 6 Aug 2026 Houthi attacks killed at least 58 government troops, mainly in Marib (army source), and at least 10 more on 7 Aug; an unnamed source close to the Saudi military called Marib a red line [1] (7 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Houthi forces take control of the city of Marib, as the government concedes or two independent sources report.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 2
- Yemen primary
- Saudi Arabia
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Marib holds
Air power and partner forces stop the offensive, as in 2021-22.
- S2
Siege
Houthi forces take districts around the city.
- S3
Fall
The city falls.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Partner forces deployed to Saudi Arabia |
| S2 | Fighting in Marib's outer districts |
| S3 | The government moves its offices out of Marib |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- Yemen
- Saudi Arabia
- A Houthi strike cuts power or water to a Saudi city for two days Shares a channel: The same Houthi offensive fires on Saudi sites.
- The Red Sea stays closed to most shipping: Houthi attacks, Bab el-Mandeb and the Suez Canal Shares a channel: The war on the coast and the war for Marib are one campaign.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Houthi attacks kill 10 in Yemen as rebels target oil-rich Marib. Aaj News (AFP) · 7 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Yemen army says it is ready as Houthis mass forces around Marib. Arab News · 14 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Pakistan, Türkiye agree to deploy forces to Saudi Arabia. CGTN · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Saudi-Houthi conflict explained: Strikes ramp up as Mecca pact countries to meet today. Khaleej Times · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks