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World risk · Finance and markets

Cabo Verde's public debt is reported at 100% of GDP or more for 2026

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IMF or Cabo Verde's finance ministry publishes a figure of 100% of GDP or more for Cabo Verde's public debt at end-2026.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

The IMF puts Cabo Verde's public debt at 112.0% of GDP in 2024 and 102.5% in 2025, and projects 97.0% for 2026, the first year below 100%. Its IMF-supported programmes run to December 2026. Higher oil and food prices, a tourism slowdown or state-firm losses could keep the ratio above 100%.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: higher energy and food prices; state-firm risks. Brakes: a falling path with a 5.5-point drop projected for 2026; programme criteria met.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Public debt 112.0% of GDP in 2024, 102.5% in 2025 (estimate), 97.0% in 2026 (projection); reserves €1.06bn in December 2025 [1] (6 Feb 2026)
  • ECF and RSF extended to December 2026; legislative and presidential elections in 2026 named as a risk [2] (13 May 2025)
  • Staff-level agreement 8 May 2026; about US$10.51m on Board approval; all end-December 2025 criteria met [3] (11 May 2026)

Where it sits

11. Cabo Verde's public debt is reported at 100% of GDP or more for 2026: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Cabo Verde's public debtis reported at 100% of GDPor more for 2026Elevated impact · unlikelyCABO VERDE DEBT BACK ABOVE 100%0250 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Cabo Verde's public debt is reported at 100% of GDP or more for 2026: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Cabo Verde debtback above 100%CABO VERDE DEBT BACK ABOVE 100%0200 kmat 16°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IMF or Cabo Verde's finance ministry publishes a figure of 100% of GDP or more for Cabo Verde's public debt at end-2026.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesA ratio above 100% would delay the debt-reduction anchor the IMF sets [1].
  3. Currency pegThe IMF ties policy to safeguarding the exchange-rate peg and building reserves [1]; slower debt reduction raises pressure on both.

Countries 1

  • Cape Verde primary

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Cape Verde.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    On track

    Debt falls below 100% in 2026 as projected.

  2. S2

    Stall

    Oil prices and state-firm losses keep debt near 100%.

  3. S3

    Shock

    A tourism slump or drought pushes debt up again.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1an IMF document in 2027 showing 2026 debt below 100%
S2a fuel subsidy or state-firm bailout in the 2027 budget
S3tourist arrivals falling year on year in early 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 ECF and RSF arrangements end [2] Declared · Outside event
  2. 3 Nov 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · CAPE VERDE · strature.net

The other side

All end-December 2025 performance criteria were met [3], and the IMF says stronger tourism growth could boost overall economic activity [1].

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Cabo Verde: IMF Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the ECF and Third Review Under the RSF. International Monetary Fund · 6 Feb 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Cabo Verde: IMF reaches staff-level agreement on the sixth review under the ECF and third review under the RSF. International Monetary Fund · 13 May 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Cape Verde to receive $10.5 million from IMF after reform review. Ecofin Agency · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks