France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade deal
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the French National Assembly votes to reject the bill authorising ratification of CETA (or adopts it with the ratification article struck out).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 5 to 4.
- Article 45: under the accelerated procedure, after one reading in each chamber, the Prime Minister may call a joint committee; the Assembly can be asked to rule definitively. [12]
- 18 member states have ratified CETA and nine have not, France among them; provisional application since 21 Sep 2017; 99% of tariff lines freed. [1]
- Assembly vote 266 to 213 in 2019; Senate vote 211 to 44 in March 2024. [7]
- The government's answer of 1 Oct 2026 defends CETA, cites EUR 3.82bn of outperformance in French goods exports over 2018-2024 and quota use of 3% (beef) and 1% (pork), and gives no vote date. [4]
- Covea Finance: since the June 2024 dissolution France has had no parliamentary majority. [11]
Why it matters
France has not ratified CETA. The National Assembly approved it in 2019, the Senate rejected it in March 2024, and the bill has waited for a second Assembly vote ever since. On 1 Oct 2026 the government defended CETA in a written answer to a senator but gave no date for that vote. A no would not by itself end the deal: termination needs a formal notice from the French government.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the 2024 resolution and the 2026 Senate question; no Assembly majority since the June 2024 dissolution. Brakes: the bill kept off the agenda since March 2024; the government defended CETA on 1 Oct 2026; elections in 2027 favour delay.
Why Impact 4 One agreement centred on France; a no delays full entry into force, unsized; months to years; provisional application continues without a notice.
The other facts on file (5)
- Council statement 20: if ratification fails permanently and definitively after formal notification, provisional application must be and will be terminated. [2] (27 Oct 2016)
- Ten states had not ratified on 31 Aug 2025; Cyprus voted against in July 2020 without notice; investment protection and the investment court not provisionally applied. [3] (26 Sep 2025)
- Bill filed 3 Jul 2019 under the fast-track procedure, adopted by the Assembly 23 Jul 2019, modified by the Senate 21 Mar 2024 so as to refuse ratification. [5] (28 Jan 2025)
- The Assembly passed a non-binding resolution 151 to 4 on 30 May 2024 asking for the bill's return. [6] (30 May 2024)
- Canada-France goods trade C$15.2bn in 2025; French FDI in Canada C$41.9bn, Canadian FDI in France C$14.1bn (end of 2025). [8] (5 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- France's National Assembly votes down CETA, the EU-Canada trade dealImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · France
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the French National Assembly votes to reject the bill authorising ratification of CETA (or adopts it with the ratification article struck out).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaInvestment stocks of C$56.0bn (Strature's sum of the two stocks in [8]) stay, as today, without CETA's investment protection [3].
- CETA's futureThe full agreement cannot enter into force while France's no stands [3].
- Termination pressureOpens the question of a French notice [2]; termination would need EU procedures [3].
- Other ratificationsCover for other holdouts (Strature's view).
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Canada, France, European Union
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Shelved
No government schedules the bill before the 2027 elections.
- S2
A vote and a no
An opposition group or a new government puts the bill on the agenda and the Assembly rejects it.
- S3
A vote and a yes
The Assembly confirms its 2019 vote; the bill goes back to the Senate, or the Prime Minister calls a joint committee under the fast-track procedure.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The bill stays off the Assembly agenda |
| S2 | The bill appears on a group's reserved day |
| S3 | A government request to schedule it after the Canada-EU summit |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0211: 12% (4 Oct 2026) · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
If the vote never comes or passes, Canadian exporters keep CETA's tariff terms, with 99% of tariff lines duty-free [1], and Strature's Q-027 finds CETA's existing terms are the whole offer for a goods exporter [10]. A clear yes would bring investment protection into force once all states ratify.
Connected in Strature
- Beyond CETA: what the EU relationship adds, and when exporters should commit
- France
- Canada
- Europe's right turn: the RN in France, the AfD in Germany, Reform UK Driven by: The outcome of the 2027 elections would shape any vote on CETA.
- The Canada-EU summit delivers none of its drafted deals by 31 Dec 2026 Shares a channel: Both turn on the Canada-EU relationship in late 2026.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). European Commission, DG Trade · 5 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Statements to the Council minutes, doc. 13463/1/16 REV 1, statement 20. Council of the European Union · 27 Oct 2016 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Ratifying the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement: some recent developments. Library of Parliament, HillNotes · 26 Sep 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Question écrite n° 07580 and the government's answer. Sénat · 1 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Projet de loi autorisant la ratification de l'accord économique et commercial global (pjl18-694). Sénat · 28 Jan 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- CETA : pourquoi le gouvernement refuse pour le moment de soumettre le traité au vote du Parlement. Public Sénat · 30 May 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- France: Status: Not Ratified. Carleton University, Canadian Trade Network · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Canada-France relations. Global Affairs Canada · 5 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Q-027: Beyond CETA, and the register (F-0211). Strature · 5 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Une rentrée à haut risque pour le gouvernement français. Covea Finance · 4 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Constitution du 4 octobre 1958, article 45. Conseil constitutionnel · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks