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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Slovenia's Janša government falls before 1 Nov 2027

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Slovenia's government loses a constructive no-confidence vote or the prime minister resigns.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
2Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Janez Janša returned as Slovenia's prime minister in May 2026 after a near-tied March election. His five-party coalition holds 43 of 90 seats and relies on the Resni.ca party's 5 seats from outside the government. No source read reports a live threat to the government.

Why Likelihood 2 Push: a minority coalition of 43 that depends on an outside party. Brakes: 48 seats with Resni.ca; the opposition would need Resni.ca to form an alternative majority. No live cited driver; a tail case.

The other facts on file (4)
  • March 2026 election: GS 29 seats, SDS 28 of 90; SDS with NSi, Democrats, SLS and Focus; Resni.ca backs the government without posts; Reuters: arrangement secures 50 of 90; agreement on tax relief and anti-corruption [1] (19 May 2026)
  • Janša elected prime minister 22 May 2026 by 51 to 36 [3] (22 May 2026)
  • 16th Government led by Janša appointed by the National Assembly on 4 Jun 2026 [2] (4 Jun 2026)
  • Coalition holds 43 of 90 seats, additionally supported by Resni.ca's 5, altogether 48 [4] (2 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Slovenia's Janša government falls before 1 Nov 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Slovenia's Janša government falls before 1 Nov 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Slovenia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · SLOVENIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Slovenia's government loses a constructive no-confidence vote or the prime minister resigns.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PolicyA fall would bring a new government or an early election, putting tax plans on hold (Strature's view).
  3. EUA change in Ljubljana could shift Slovenia's line in EU votes that need unanimity (Strature's view).

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Slovenia

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Stable

    The coalition and Resni.ca hold through the window.

  2. S2

    Strained

    Resni.ca or a partner withdraws support but no alternative majority forms.

  3. S3

    Fall

    The opposition and Resni.ca gather a majority behind a new candidate, or Janša resigns.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The 2027 budget passes
S2Resni.ca announces it no longer backs the government
S3A constructive no-confidence motion filed

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SLOVENIA · strature.net

The other side

A government with a working majority can pass its programme after the spring deadlock (Strature's view) [1][4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Slovenia's Janša seeks fourth term after coalition secures majority. Reuters (via Internazionale) · 19 May 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. About the government. Government of the Republic of Slovenia · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Slovenia's parliament elects Janez Jansa as new prime minister. Xinhua (via The Star) · 23 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Newsletter, Republic of Slovenia, July 2026. Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Slovenia · 2 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks