The US adds a Section 301 "excess capacity" tariff on Cambodian goods
The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the US Trade Representative imposes an additional duty on goods of Cambodia under the Section 301 investigation into structural excess capacity opened on 11 Mar 2026, by USTR notice or in the Federal Register.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 4 to 3.
- No USTR determination or action in the excess-capacity case in the Federal Register to 4 Nov 2026 [3]
Why it matters
Cambodia already pays a 10% US tariff from a forced-labour case. A second US case, on excess capacity, has been open since March 2026; a decision is generally due by about March 2027. Cambodia's government expects an added duty and has talked about its size.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the forced-labour twin case ended in tariffs on every economy covered; Cambodia's government expects an added duty and talks about its size; any added duty counts.
The other facts on file (7)
- USTR opened Section 301 excess-capacity investigations into 16 economies including Cambodia on 11 Mar 2026; hearings from 5 May 2026 [2] (17 Mar 2026)
- USTR's notice cites a US goods deficit with Cambodia of about US$12bn in 2025 and garment, footwear and travel goods exports of US$11.8bn in the first nine months of 2025, up 16% [2] (17 Mar 2026)
- A presidential memorandum of 23 Jul 2026 directs a 10% Section 301 tariff on goods of Cambodia (lower tier: forced-labour import ban adopted), with textile and apparel quotas for an initial three years [1] (23 Jul 2026)
- Sun Chanthol (27 Jul 2026): excess capacity is the remaining issue, outcome in two or three months; US exports were US$7.5bn in H1 2026, up 41% [5] (27 Jul 2026)
- Sun Chanthol (27 Jul 2026): the added tariff is unlikely to exceed 9 percent; if neighbours win final rates below 19 percent, the US will cut Cambodia's overall rate to the same level. Sim Sokheng (Commerce Ministry, 27 Jul 2026): the US granted duty-free access to 154 Cambodian tariff lines [6] (28 Jul 2026)
- Sun Chanthol told Bloomberg the two tariff components could add up to around 19 percent or less [7] (27 Jul 2026)
- In cases not involving trade agreements, USTR generally determines within 12 months after an investigation begins [4] (13 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the US Trade Representative imposes an additional duty on goods of Cambodia under the Section 301 investigation into structural excess capacity opened on 11 Mar 2026, by USTR notice or in the Federal Register.
Not under wayWho is exposed
No figure on file: Cambodia, United States.
- Sectors
- Textiles apparel
- Goods
- Garments, Footwear, Travel goods
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Deal, no duty
The case closes in a negotiated outcome.
- S2
Small add-on
A duty of a few points, matched to neighbours.
- S3
Stacked tariff
A larger duty on top of the 10%.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A USTR notice terminating the case by March 2027 |
| S2 | A determination naming Cambodia by March 2027 |
| S3 | Proposed action published for comment by February 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 11 Mar 2027 About 12 months from the case's opening, when a determination is generally due [4] Tentative · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Cambodia
- The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Thai cars, machinery or rubber goods Shares a channel: The same US case for Thailand.
- The US adds an excess-capacity tariff on Malaysian electronics, machinery or other named goods Shares a channel: The same US case for Malaysia.
- The US or UK sanctions a further Cambodian official or state body over scam centres Shares a channel: Another US measure on Cambodia.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Actions by the United States in the Investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The White House · 23 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Initiation of Section 301 Investigations: Acts, Policies, and Practices of Certain Economies Relating to Structural Excess Capacity and Production in Manufacturing Sectors (2026-05214). USTR, Federal Register · 17 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Federal Register search: USTR documents with the term excess capacity, from 1 Mar 2026. Federal Register · 4 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 (IF11346). Congressional Research Service · 13 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- New 10% U.S. forced labor tariff not additional tax, Sun Chanthol says. CamboJA News · 27 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Cambodia Says U.S. to Match Lower Regional Tariffs if Rivals Win Better Deals. Cambodianess · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- US imposes 10% tariff on Cambodia, below ASEAN rivals. Vietstock (Khmer Times) · 27 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Impact 4 to 3 · All risks