Morocco lifts its 2027 subsidy budget by a fifth or more
The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Morocco's government raises the 2027 allocation for price compensation (butane, sugar, soft-wheat flour) by a fifth or more above the MAD 19.4bn in the 2027 finance bill, to MAD 23.3bn or more, by decree, amended finance law or a finance ministry statement, or as two sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- The 2027 finance bill programs MAD 19.4bn for compensation; the 2026 allocation began at MAD 13.77bn and was raised to MAD 22bn, mainly for butane and aid to road transporters [1]
- Average state support per 12 kg butane cylinder was MAD 61.79 in January-August 2026, up 15.75% on a year earlier [1]
- US dollar at MAD 9.682 on 30 Sep 2026 (Bank Al-Maghrib, as reported) [5]
Why it matters
Morocco's 2027 finance bill sets MAD 19.4bn for price compensation on butane, sugar and soft-wheat flour, after the 2026 allocation was raised from MAD 13.77bn to MAD 22bn, mainly for dearer butane and aid to road hauliers. Morocco, with no refinery, depends heavily on imported oil, gas and coal, so a new energy price shock would push the bill up again.
Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: the 2027 allocation already starts well above the 2026 opening figure; a calmer oil market. Two drivers with brakes holding = 4.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case MAD 3.9bn more.
The other facts on file (3)
- Budget minister: monthly cost about MAD 600m for butane, MAD 400m for electricity tariffs, MAD 648m for transport fuel; state covers MAD 78 per cylinder, up from MAD 30 [2] (2 Apr 2026)
- About MAD 20bn added to the 2026 budget, mostly to hold gas bottle, electricity and transport prices and partly for flood costs (unnamed source to Reuters); Morocco, with no refinery, depends heavily on imported oil, gas and coal [3] (17 May 2026)
- Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026); a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, resolves 20 Nov 2026 [4] (21 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Morocco's government raises the 2027 allocation for price compensation (butane, sugar, soft-wheat flour) by a fifth or more above the MAD 19.4bn in the 2027 finance bill, to MAD 23.3bn or more, by decree, amended finance law or a finance ministry statement, or as two sources report.
Not under wayWho is exposed
No figure on file: Morocco.
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Refined fuels, Sugar, Wheat
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Bill holds
Energy prices calm and spending stays near MAD 19.4bn.
- S2
Small top-up
Costs rise but the increase stays under a fifth.
- S3
2026 again
A Gulf shock lifts butane costs and the government adds a fifth or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No added allocation by 30 Jun 2027 |
| S2 | Support per cylinder above MAD 61.79 in early 2027 |
| S3 | F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [4] Declared · Strature date
- Jan 2027 Budget year opens with MAD 19.4bn for compensation [1] Tentative · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
Cheaper world butane and oil would shrink the bill and give room to resume the reform of butane prices (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Refined fuels
- Morocco
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A Hormuz closure would raise the import price of the butane and fuel Morocco subsidises.
- Drought cuts the 2027 cereal harvest by a quarter in two Maghreb states Shares a channel: A poor harvest raises soft-wheat imports, and the same compensation fund holds the flour price.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- PLF 2027 : compensation, budget de 19,4 milliards DH. Boursenews · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Gaz, électricité, transport : Lekjaa détaille les mesures pour contenir le choc des prix au Maroc. Finances News Hebdo · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Le Maroc sort 20 milliards pour éviter une flambée du gaz et des transports. Bladi.net · 17 May 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (F-0074). Strature forecast register · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
- Dirham sous pression : l'euro franchit le seuil des 11 DH. Boursenews · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks