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World risk · Finance and markets

Sierra Leone's inflation passes 20% a year

The test Statistics Sierra Leone reports year-on-year CPI inflation above 20% for any month from October 2026 to September 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth2
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. August 2026 inflation 15.66%, up from 14.89% in July [1]

Why it matters

Sierra Leone's inflation fell to 4.4% in October 2025, then climbed back to 15.66% in August 2026. The rise is driven by housing, utilities and fuels, up more than 80% on a year, while food inflation stays low. The question is whether the yearly rate goes on to pass 20%.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: energy prices and a rising yearly rate. Brakes: slower monthly rate in July, cheap food, the IMF programme. Threshold raised because the August 2026 print already passed the old line.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case one month just above 20%.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Inflation fell to 4.4% in October 2025; reserves 1.5 months of imports in September 2025 [3] (16 Dec 2025)
  • June 2026 headline 14.77%, monthly 1.57%; July 2026 headline 14.89%, monthly 0.42%, food 5.74%, non-food 22.11%, housing-utilities-fuels 83.72%, transport 37.04% [2] (31 Aug 2026)
  • IMF completed the third ECF review on 18 Jun 2026 and approved about US$211.5m under the RSF; inflation pressures persist [4] (19 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Sierra Leone's inflation passes 20% a year. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Sierra Leone's inflation passes 20% a yearImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Sierra Leone
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · SIERRA LEONE · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Statistics Sierra Leone reports year-on-year CPI inflation above 20% for any month from October 2026 to September 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. HouseholdsFuel and utility prices already lead the index [2]; a rate above 20% would deepen the squeeze (Strature's view).
  3. MoneyIt would test the IMF programme's inflation path and the central bank's stance [4].
  4. NeighboursLiberia and Guinea face the same fuel bill; the IMF named elevated and volatile oil prices as a pressure on Liberia's programme in September 2026 [5].

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

  • Sierra Leone primary
  • Liberia
  • Guinea

Who is exposed

Countries
Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea
Sectors
Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Refined fuels

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Plateau

    The rate holds between 14% and 17% as fuel effects age.

  2. S2

    Second wave

    A new fuel or currency shock lifts the yearly rate above 20%.

  3. S3

    Fall-back

    Base effects pull the rate under 10% by mid-2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Monthly rates under 1% through December 2026
S2A monthly rate above 2% in two months running
S3The June 2027 print

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 October CPI release [2] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SIERRA LEONE · strature.net

The other side

Food inflation is low and the monthly rate slowed in July [2]. A stable leone and IMF support could bring the rate back down quickly (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Top 10 African countries with the highest inflation rates as of September 2026. Nairametrics · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Inflation edges up to 14.89% in July. Premier Media (Sierra Leone) · 31 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. IMF backs Sierra Leone with $79.8M. Premier Media (Sierra Leone) · 2025-12 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. IMF approves funds for climate resilience programme for Sierra Leone. CGTN Africa (Reuters) · 19 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Liberia IMF disbursement US$50 million. The Rio Times · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks