Liberia's IMF programme stalls
The test By 1 Nov 2027, a review of Liberia's ECF arrangement is not completed within six months of its scheduled test date, or the arrangement is cancelled.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Board completed the reviews on 28 Sep 2026, about US$50.16m released; ECF disbursed about US$131.67m (about 62%); bank recapitalisation slower than planned; banknotes an immediate priority [1]
Why it matters
Liberia's 40-month IMF credit programme, approved in September 2024, passed its fourth review on 28 Sep 2026, and a climate facility was added in April 2026. The IMF called performance satisfactory despite volatile oil prices. This card watches for the opposite: a review that falls far behind or a programme that ends early.
Why Likelihood 2 Pushes: slow bank recapitalisation, banknote shortages, oil-price volatility, which are pressures rather than signs of a missed review. Brakes: four reviews passed, the latest on 28 Sep 2026 with performance called satisfactory.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one review six months late.
The other facts on file (4)
- ECF approved 25 Sep 2024 for 40 months, SDR 155m (about US$210m); RSF approved 27 Apr 2026, SDR 193.8m (about US$265m) [2] (28 Jul 2026)
- Mission 10-23 Jun 2026 reached staff-level agreement on the fourth ECF and first RSF reviews; inflation 4.5% in H1 2026, about 6% expected; risks include oil prices and Middle East war spillovers [2] (28 Jul 2026)
- Staff-level agreement announced 28 Jul 2026; quantitative targets met; Board expected late September 2026 [3] (29 Jul 2026)
- Board completed the third ECF review in April 2026, about US$26.49m disbursed; RSF of about US$266m approved [4] (28 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Liberia's IMF programme stallsImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Liberia
How it spreads
By 1 Nov 2027, a review of Liberia's ECF arrangement is not completed within six months of its scheduled test date, or the arrangement is cancelled.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- ReservesThe disbursements mostly go to central bank reserves [1]; a stall would cut that support (Strature's view).
- BudgetA stall would delay the VAT and mining-tax reforms set for 2027 and the concessional money tied to them [2].
- BanksBank restructuring is a programme task [1]; a stall would slow it.
Sectors 2
- Banks and insurers
- Mining and metals
Countries 1
- Liberia primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Liberia
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Mining and metals
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On track
The fifth review passes on time.
- S2
Slow but alive
A review slips by weeks, with waivers.
- S3
Stall
A missed criterion or a governance dispute holds a review past six months.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A staff-level agreement announced by June 2027 |
| S2 | A Board date moved without a staff agreement |
| S3 | No staff mission statement by mid-2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 2027 VAT start under the programme (month not set) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
Liberia has passed every review so far and the IMF praised its fiscal consolidation [1]. A smooth programme keeps concessional money flowing to a mining-led economy (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Sierra Leone's inflation passes 20% a year Shares a channel: Both small IMF programmes face the same oil-price pressure (Rio Times, Oct 2026).
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Liberia IMF disbursement US$50 million. The Rio Times · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Liberia: IMF staff reaches staff-level agreement on the fourth review of the ECF arrangement and the first review of the RSF arrangement. Zawya · 28 Jul 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- IMF staff-level deal puts Liberia on track for $50 million disbursement. Ecofin Agency · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Liberia: $266m IMF Package Fuels Liberia's Reform Drive. AllAfrica · 28 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks