Brazil and Paraguay miss the year-end mark for Itaipú's new financial terms
The test Brazil and Paraguay have not signed a revised Annex C of the Itaipú treaty by 31 Dec 2026.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Brazil and Paraguay have promised a new Annex C, the financial terms of the Itaipú dam treaty, since 2024 and missed two dates. The 2024 deal fixed the tariff only to 2026, and Brazil wants a lower price from 2027 that Paraguay resists. With 60 days left and no signing found, a year-end miss leans ahead.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: two missed dates; Peña opposes a tariff cut; no date set with 60 days left. Brakes: Verri's April 2026 view that the review can finish in 2026; Lula's pledge to conclude quickly; Brazil's election is over. Leaning to a miss on thin, older sources: 6, not 7. Apply the 30-day test on 1 Dec 2026.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: no signing by 31 Dec.
The other facts on file (6)
- Brazil confirmed a tariff of US$19.28 per kW-month to 2026 and an Annex C review to reach Congress before 31 Dec 2024 [1] (8 May 2024)
- Paraguay's Presidency announced the new Annex C would be signed on 30 May 2025 [3] (21 Feb 2025)
- Lula and Peña agreed to intensify Annex C talks; Lula said they would conclude quickly; no date set; Peña opposes a tariff cut; Itaipú covers about 86% of Paraguay's and 9% of Brazil's demand [4] (22 Mar 2026)
- Verri saw strong conditions to finish the review in 2026; Brazil aims for US$10-12 per kW-month from 2027 and covers about US$300m a year to hold consumers at US$16.71 [5] (13 Apr 2026)
- Paraguay suspended talks in April 2025 over suspected Brazilian intelligence spying; resumed after a Lula-Pena meeting in July 2025 [5] (14 Apr 2026)
- Paraguay's Itaipu director Justo Zacarias Irun reported as saying the Annex C talks depend on Brazil's electoral climate [6] (6 May 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Brazil and Paraguay miss the year-end mark for Itaipú's new financial termsImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Paraguay
How it spreads
Brazil and Paraguay have not signed a revised Annex C of the Itaipú treaty by 31 Dec 2026.
Not under wayWho is exposed
- Countries
- Paraguay, Brazil
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Electricity
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Signed by December
A text is signed before 31 Dec.
- S2
Bridge tariff
A 2027 tariff is set while Annex C waits.
- S3
Long stall
Talks run into 2027 over the price gap.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A signing date announced by either Presidency |
| S2 | An Itaipú board tariff decision for 2027 |
| S3 | Paraguay's officials restating opposition to a cut |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 1 Dec 2026 30-day test: is a signing on the table? [5] Tentative · Strature date
- 31 Dec 2026 End of the 2024 tariff period; the event is judged [1] Declared · Outside event
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Connected in Strature
- Brazil
- Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break Driven by: Brazil's post-election politics set Lula's room to concede on price.
- Low water on the Paraguay River caps barge loads again Shares a channel: Paraguay's power and barge trade both rest on the same river basin (wave 2; Strature's view).
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Gobierno brasileño oficializa un acuerdo estructural sobre la tarifa de Itaipú. Última Hora · 8 May 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- La firma del nuevo Anexo C de Itaipú se realizará el 30 de mayo. Última Hora · 21 Feb 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Lula and Peña agree to accelerate Itaipu treaty review. MercoPress · 23 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Itaipu: negociação com paraguaios avança e tarifa deve ser reduzida. Agência iNFRA · 14 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Lula podría patear la negociación por Itaipú hasta después de las elecciones en Brasil. La Política Online · 6 May 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Strature world risk World risk “Brazil after the vote: a contested result or a fiscal break”. Strature · 28 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks