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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Low water on the Paraguay River caps barge loads again

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Paraguay River at Asunción falls below zero on the port gauge and barge loads are capped.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. River at 2.64 m on 17 Oct and about 2.74 m on 19 Oct 2026, below the 4.50 m alert; riverside emergency, about 3,300 families exposed (city estimate) [3]
  2. NOAA expects a strong to very strong El Niño through January-March 2027 [4]

Why it matters

In 2024 the Paraguay River at Asunción fell to a record -1.43 m and barges ran at half to 60% of their load. This year the river is high: about +2.74 m on 19 Oct 2026, and a strong El Niño, which Strature expects to bring rain to the basin, runs into 2027. A repeat in the 2027 dry season is possible but not signalled.

Why Likelihood 3 Push: the 2024 precedent. Brakes: the river near +2.7 m in October 2026; a strong El Niño into 2027.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: gauge below zero with load caps.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Gauge at Asunción -61 cm; barges at 50-60% of load; ANNP expected the low to last at least six more weeks; dredging of 6 million m3 half done [1] (4 Sep 2024)
  • Record low of -1.43 m on 7 Oct 2024; -1.42 m on 27 Oct; costs, cement prices and inflation affected [2] (27 Oct 2024)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Low water on the Paraguay River caps barge loads again. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Low water on the Paraguay River caps barge loads againImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Paraguay
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · PARAGUAY · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Paraguay River at Asunción falls below zero on the port gauge and barge loads are capped.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. FreightCapped loads raise cost per tonne; costs pass to traders [1].
  3. PricesIn 2024 the low fed cement prices and inflation [2].
  4. NeighboursArgentina's river ports and Bolivia's river exports share the waterway (Strature's view).

Goods 1

  • Soybeans

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 3

Who is exposed

Countries
Paraguay, Argentina, Bolivia
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
Goods
Soybeans

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Wet year

    El Niño rain keeps the river high through 2027.

  2. S2

    Late dry spell

    El Niño fades and the 2027 dry season brings a fall towards zero.

  3. S3

    Repeat of 2024

    A sharp fall below zero by September 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1DMH readings above 1 m in August 2027
S2NOAA ending its El Niño advisory
S3ANNP announcing load limits

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Strong El Niño expected to last through January-March 2027 [4] Tentative · Window
  2. Aug 2027 Usual low-water season begins (Strature's view, from the 2024 timing) [1] Tentative · Window
  3. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · PARAGUAY · strature.net

The other side

High water in 2026 [3] gives the barge fleet full loads this season; new dredging [1] lowers the bar for the next low (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Bajante del río se agudiza y el estiaje seguirá por 45 días más. Última Hora · 4 Sep 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Río Paraguay se aproxima de nuevo a su nivel más bajo en Asunción. Última Hora · 27 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. El río Paraguay casi llega a los tres metros en la bahía de Asunción (ABC, DMH data). Prensa Mercosur · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks