The Tanzania LNG host government agreement is still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027
The test On 30 Jun 2027, the final host government agreement for the Tanzania LNG project in Lindi has still not been signed by the government and the project partners.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Finance minister: the LNG deal is 'almost there'; officials had expected signing before June; partners led by Equinor and Shell; 47.13 tcf [1]
Why it matters
Tanzania has negotiated its US$42bn LNG project since 2014. It missed its own targets of end-2025 and June 2026 for the final agreement. In a Reuters interview published on 13 Oct 2026 the finance minister said the deal was 'almost there', but gave no date.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: targets missed end-2025 and June 2026; talks since 2014; Tanzania sought changes to 2023 terms. Brakes: minister's 'almost there' on 13 Oct 2026; commercial talks declared finished in January 2026.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a slip of a few months.
The other facts on file (4)
- Commercial talks finished, legal issues being resolved; government planned to sign by June 2026; production in about 8 years (government estimate); Tanzania proposed changes to terms agreed in 2023 [2] (30 Jan 2026)
- Deal expected before end-2025; talks since 2014; framework agreement signed 2022 [3] (4 Oct 2025)
- Initial host government agreement signed; FID then targeted for 2025 [4] (14 Jun 2022)
- Minister of state Kitila Mkumbo: 'The deal is done'; signing expected before June; only the legal framework remains [5] (26 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The Tanzania LNG host government agreement is still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Tanzania
How it spreads
On 30 Jun 2027, the final host government agreement for the Tanzania LNG project in Lindi has still not been signed by the government and the project partners.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Gas supplyA further slip pushes East Africa's largest planned gas export project, and its domestic gas share, later.
- State financesNo decision yet on an international bond; a decision on a new IMF programme expected by June [1]; a delayed project defers gas revenue (Strature's view).
- BuyersStrature's view: new East African LNG for Europe and Asia arrives later.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Signed
The agreement is signed in the first half of 2027.
- S2
Rolling slip
Talks continue past June 2027.
- S3
Reset
Terms are reopened, as Tanzania did with the 2023 terms.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A signing ceremony announced by the ministry of energy |
| S2 | A new target date given by a minister |
| S3 | A government proposal to change the fiscal terms |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jun 2027 Tanzania decides whether to seek a new IMF programme (by June; year inferred) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Jun 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Tanzania
- An insurgent attack halts construction at the Afungi LNG site again Shares a channel: The other East African LNG export project; both shape the region's gas supply.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: New LNG supply eases tight markets; a slip delays it.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Tanzania close to finalising $42 billion LNG deal, finance minister says (Reuters). The Citizen · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tanzania expects to secure US$42bn LNG project by June 2026. Enerdata · 30 Jan 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tanzania pushes for $42bn LNG deal with Shell, Equinor by end-2025 after decades of delays (Daily News). Club of Mozambique · 4 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tanzania signs Host Government Agreement for Tanzania LNG export project. Enerdata · 14 Jun 2022 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Tanzania to sign $42B LNG project deal by June (Reuters). Offshore Engineer · 28 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks