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A hurricane passes close to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines or Barbados before 3 Nov 2027

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 1 or above (64 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of Barbados or of any island of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track or advisories.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. NHC 2026 list: ten named storms to 22 Oct, one hurricane (Isaias, 6-10 Oct, major) [3]
  2. CPC: strong-to-very strong El Niño expected through January-March 2027 [4]
  3. Isaias's first advisory places it in the western Gulf of Mexico, with no coastal warnings [6]

Why it matters

In July 2024 Hurricane Beryl's eyewall crossed the southern Grenadines as a Category 4 storm, damaging or destroying 80-90% of homes on Canouan, Mayreau and Union Island. The World Bank put Saint Vincent's damage at US$230.6 million, about 22% of 2023 GDP. Beryl passed about 100 nautical miles from Barbados, which still lost part of its fishing fleet. The 2027 season falls almost wholly inside the window.

Why Likelihood 3 Recurring event: once in the last 36 months for Saint Vincent (Beryl, July 2024), so not below 3. Pushes: the precedent; a full season inside the window. Brakes: Barbados was missed by about 100 n mi in Beryl; a strong El Niño into early 2027, whose effect on the 2027 season is not sourced here. Held at 3.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Beryl landfall on Carriacou at 120 kt on 1 Jul 2024; eight deaths and US$231 million damage in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines; 80-90% of homes damaged or destroyed on Canouan, Mayreau and Union [1] (1 May 2025)
  • Beryl centred about 100 n mi south-southeast of Barbados; cruise terminal damaged, more than 200 fishing boats damaged or destroyed [1] (1 May 2025)
  • World Bank: US$230.6 million damage in Saint Vincent, about 22% of 2023 GDP, 81% in the southern Grenadines [2] (26 Jul 2024)
  • IMF approves a US$257 million precautionary arrangement for Barbados; debt 91.8% of GDP projected for 2026; reserves about US$1.5 billion at end-2025 [5] (22 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO11. A hurricane passes close to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines or Barbados before 3 Nov 2027: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Hurricane nears StVincentElevated impact · unlikelyHURRICANE NEARS ST VINCENT0250 kmat 13°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO11. A hurricane passes close to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines or Barbados before 3 Nov 2027: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Hurricane nearsSt VincentHURRICANE NEARS ST VINCENT0200 kmat 13°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the centre of a hurricane of Category 1 or above (64 kt or more) passes within 50 nautical miles of Barbados or of any island of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, as recorded in the US National Hurricane Center's best track or advisories.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesA Beryl-scale hit cost Saint Vincent about a fifth of a year's GDP [2]; Barbados's public debt is projected at 91.8% of GDP in 2026 [5].
  3. Tourism and transportPorts, cruise terminals and the Grenadine islands sit on the storm side [1][2].

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 3

  • Saint Vincent and the Grenadines primary
  • Barbados primary
  • Grenada

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados, Grenada.

Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet season

    No hurricane comes within 50 n mi.

  2. S2

    Near miss

    A tropical storm or a distant hurricane brings wind and flood damage.

  3. S3

    Direct hit

    A hurricane centre passes within 50 n mi.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1NOAA's May 2027 seasonal outlook below normal
S2Tropical storm warnings
S3A hurricane warning for Barbados or Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Nov 2026 End of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season [3] Declared · Window

    Remind me

  2. 1 Jun 2027 The 2027 Atlantic hurricane season opens [3] Declared · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Barbados had reserves of about US$1.5 billion at end-2025, around six months of imports, and IMF access of US$64 million at once [5]. The World Bank finds that minor structural improvements would make Saint Vincent's homes more resilient to strong winds [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Beryl (AL022024). US National Hurricane Center · 1 May 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: Hurricane Beryl 2024, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. World Bank and GFDRR · 26 Jul 2024 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, tropical cyclone reports. US National Hurricane Center · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. IMF Executive Board Approves 36-month US$257 million Precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for Barbados and Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation. IMF · 22 Jun 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Isaias Public Advisory Number 1. US National Hurricane Center · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks