Bolivia passes a lithium law that opens the salt flats to private partners
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Bolivia's Legislative Assembly passes, and the President promulgates, a new evaporite-resources (lithium) law that lets private or foreign partners hold extraction contracts.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- MAS holds 2 of 130 lower-house seats and none in the Senate; centre and right parties backed the IMF programme [4]
Why it matters
President Rodrigo Paz said in January 2026 that Bolivia needs a new law on evaporite resources, lithium among them, with clear rules for investors. The previous government's contracts with Chinese and Russian partners stalled in the Chamber of Deputies in February 2025 amid bribery allegations. The Assembly is now far friendlier to Paz's agenda, but no bill text has been found.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the President's plan; a centre-right majority with the MAS reduced to two lower-house seats. Brakes: no bill text found; Potosí groups' resistance to the 2025 contracts; the fuel-subsidy fight comes first.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: a law passed.
The other facts on file (4)
- In Potosí, Paz said Bolivia needs a new evaporite-resources law with clear rules and called the Arce-era lithium contracts ones nobody knows [1] (27 Jan 2026)
- A Chamber of Deputies committee approved a Uyuni lithium carbonate contract with a Chinese partner, 5 governing and 3 opposition votes; a deputy, citing journalists, alleged up to US$10,000 a vote; its backers rejected the claim [2] (11 Feb 2025)
- The Chamber of Deputies suspended the Chinese and Russian lithium contracts pending consultation; over 30 institutions and Potosí leaders objected [3] (15 Feb 2025)
- Protests and blockades paralysed Bolivia for six days in January 2026 [5] (15 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Bolivia passes a lithium law that opens the salt flats to private partnersImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Bolivia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Bolivia's Legislative Assembly passes, and the President promulgates, a new evaporite-resources (lithium) law that lets private or foreign partners hold extraction contracts.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Law passed
The executive sends a bill and the centre-right majority passes it.
- S2
Stalled by the street
Potosí groups and unions resist, as with the 2025 contracts; the bill waits.
- S3
Contracts without a law
The government renegotiates single contracts under existing rules.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A bill tabled in the Chamber of Deputies |
| S2 | Potosí civic protests over lithium |
| S3 | A contract sent to the Assembly before any law |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 Planned full end of the fuel subsidy, a likely flashpoint before any lithium bill [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
Clear rules could unlock Bolivia's lithium; Paz said on 26 Jan 2026 that mining output has no value if it never leaves the country [1]; foreign buyers would gain a new source (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- China
- Russia
- Zimbabwe stops all lithium concentrate exports when its January 2027 ban takes effect Shares a channel: The same lithium supply channel, from another producer (wave 2).
- The end of Bolivia's fuel subsidy brings a week of national road blockades Driven by: The same Assembly and unions; blockades and the subsidy fight would crowd out the bill (wave 2).
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Paz: Bolivia necesita nueva ley del litio (EFE). Correo del Sur · 27 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Aprueban en Bolivia un contrato de litio con empresa china en medio de denuncias de sobornos. Diario Las Américas · 11 Feb 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cámara de Diputados de Bolivia suspende contratos con Rusia y China para explotar litio. Diario Las Américas · 15 Feb 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia's Congress approves $1.9bn IMF loan amid protest threats (AP). Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bolivia declares 'energy and social emergency' after widespread protests. Buenos Aires Herald · 15 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks