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World risk · Regulation and compliance

REGIONAL. Kenya or Uganda confirms a new Ebola case

The test A confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola case is reported by Kenya or Uganda (health ministry, WHO or ECDC) with a report date from 1 Dec 2026 to 4 Nov 2027. The start date leaves out the tail of Kenya's October 2026 cluster (last case 20 Oct; 42 days later is 1 Dec).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. ECDC: DR Congo had 10,532 confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases and 5,126 deaths to 1 Nov 2026, with community transmission ongoing in eight provinces [1]
  2. Kenya had nine confirmed Ebola cases and two deaths to 26 Oct 2026, all linked to the first case; the last case was reported on 20 Oct [1]
  3. Uganda reported Ebola cases earlier in the crisis and its outbreak has ended; Nigeria reported one case on 20 Oct 2026 in a traveller from Uganda [1]
  4. Kenya's first case travelled from DR Congo by road through the Mpondwe border to Kampala and flew from Entebbe to Nairobi on 3 Oct 2026; Kenya had screened 688,244 travellers by 16 Oct [4]

Why it matters

DR Congo's Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak is still growing, with 10,532 confirmed cases by 1 Nov 2026. Uganda had cases and has ended its outbreak; Kenya had nine cases in October 2026, the last on 20 Oct. WHO rates the risk high for Uganda and for the countries bordering DR Congo or Uganda.

Why Likelihood 6 Two eligible countries; Uganda, the more likely, sets the score. Twice in the last 36 months, so not below 3. Pushes: WHO's high risk rating; two exported chains in five months; a case in Nigeria with travel to Uganda; a source outbreak still growing. Brakes: neither country has a current chain; screening in place.

The other facts on file (2)
  • WHO rated the risk high in Uganda and high for countries bordering DR Congo or Uganda [2] (3 Jul 2026)
  • Tanzania remained free of Ebola cases; 64 alerts and 11 suspected cases had all tested negative [3] (22 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

KENYAUGANDA11. REGIONAL. Kenya or Uganda confirms a new Ebola case: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 REGIONAL. Kenyaor Uganda confirms a newEbola caseElevated impact · possibleEBOLA CASE IN EAST AFRICA0300 kmat 0°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
KENYAUGANDA11. REGIONAL. Kenya or Uganda confirms a new Ebola case: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Ebola casein East AfricaEBOLA CASE IN EAST AFRICA0300 kmat 0°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

A confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola case is reported by Kenya or Uganda (health ministry, WHO or ECDC) with a report date from 1 Dec 2026 to 4 Nov 2027. The start date leaves out the tail of Kenya's October 2026 cluster (last case 20 Oct; 42 days later is 1 Dec).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Trade corridorContact tracing and border screening along the road from the Ugandan border to Kampala and on to Kenya, the route of the October 2026 case [4].
  3. TravelScreening at Entebbe and Nairobi airports; Kenya had screened 688,244 travellers by 16 Oct 2026 [4].
  4. Health systemsIsolation, tracing and treatment costs for each new chain [1].

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    No new case

    DR Congo's outbreak slows and border screening holds.

  2. S2

    Imported case

    A traveller from DR Congo is confirmed in Kampala or Nairobi and the chain is contained.

  3. S3

    Local chain

    A new case seeds a cluster, as in Kenya in October 2026.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ECDC reporting falling weekly cases in DR Congo
S2A health ministry alert on a confirmed case
S3A second generation of cases reported by WHO

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Dec 2026 Window opens, 42 days after Kenya's last case [1] Tentative · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Both countries have contained chains: Uganda ended its outbreak and Kenya's cluster stayed linked to one case [1]. Tanzania has screened alerts without a case [3]. Screening is already in place at Kenya's entry points [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Ebola disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda. ECDC · 4 Nov 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Disease Outbreak News DON612. WHO · 3 Jul 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Tanzania on alert amid expanding Ebola threat. The Citizen · 22 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Weekly Situation Report, Emergency Preparedness and Response, 5-16 October 2026 (Kenya). WHO Regional Office for Africa · 16 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks