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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Simandou ships less than 15 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026

The test Total Simandou iron ore exports for calendar 2026, as reported by its operators or Guinea's government by 31 Mar 2027, are under 15 million tonnes.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Operator of blocks 3 and 4: 2.5 Mt produced in Q3, 3.7 Mt produced and 1.7 Mt sold Jan-Sep; 2026 sales guidance 5-10 Mt; first ore through permanent port Q4 2026; 60 Mt a year in H2 2028 [4]
  2. Most market estimates 16-22 Mt for 2026; Wood Mackenzie base case closer to 16 Mt [5]

Why it matters

Guinea's Simandou iron ore project shipped its first cargo in late 2025. Official 2026 guidance was 15-20 Mt, which a shipbroker said in March was likely to skew lower; shipments then hit a record 2.2 Mt in May and analysts in June saw more than 20 Mt. No year-to-date total for the whole project after mid-May was found, so the year is an open contest.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: rail limits, the rains, one operator's 5-10 Mt guidance. Brakes: record 2.2 Mt in May, about 6 Mt by mid-May, Mysteel's view of more than 20 Mt, September market estimates of 16-22 Mt near the line. One named source each side: open contest, 5. Low confidence; refresh in January 2027.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case a total just under 15 Mt.

The other facts on file (3)
  • First cargo 2 Dec 2025; guidance 15-20 Mt likely to skew lower (shipbroker); eight locomotives [1] (26 Mar 2026)
  • About 0.6 Mt a month in Q1, 1.3 Mt in April, record 2.2 Mt in May (Bloomberg, relayed) [2] (4 Jun 2026)
  • About 6 Mt exported by mid-May 2026; Mysteel: 2026 shipments could exceed 20 Mt after the July-September rains [3] (9 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Simandou ships less than 15 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Simandou ships less than 15 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Guinea
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · GUINEA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Total Simandou iron ore exports for calendar 2026, as reported by its operators or Guinea's government by 31 Mar 2027, are under 15 million tonnes.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Guinea's revenueA short year delays royalties and export earnings into the next year (Strature's view).
  3. Iron ore marketSlower Simandou supply eases pressure on the iron ore price (Strature's view).

Sectors 3

  • Mining and metals
  • Rail
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Guinea, China
Sectors
Mining and metals, Rail, Ports and logistics
Goods
Iron ore

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Above guidance

    Post-rain shipments run above 2 Mt a month and the year passes 15 Mt.

  2. S2

    Near the line

    The year ends close to 15 Mt.

  3. S3

    Short year

    Rail and port limits hold the total under 15 Mt.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Monthly shipments in October and November 2026
S2First ore through the permanent port in Q4 2026
S3Operators' full-year reports in January 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 First ore through the permanent crushers and port [4] Declared · Outside event
  2. Jan 2027 Refresh this card: full-year 2026 totals from operators' quarterly reports [4] Tentative · Strature date
  3. 31 Mar 2027 Last date for the 2026 total to be reported [4] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · GUINEA · strature.net

The other side

A fast ramp-up after the rains would put Guinea on track for the 60 Mt a year that one operator targets for the second half of 2028 [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Simandou iron ore exports face rail constraints. Argus Media · 26 Mar 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Guinea's Simandou iron ore project ramps up exports six months after launch. Ecofin Agency · 4 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Ore shipments from Simandou could exceed 20 million tonnes in 2026. GMK Center · 9 Jun 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Rio Tinto's iron ore sales rise in Q3 2026 as Simandou ramp-up advances. SteelOrbis · 14 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Iron ore outlook 2026: Simandou volumes test the $100 floor. Skillings · 19 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks