Guinea revokes or suspends the licence of another bauxite mine that is exporting
The test By 1 Nov 2027, Guinea's government revokes, suspends or transfers to a state company the permit of a bauxite mine that shipped ore in the prior 12 months.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Guinea exported about 146 million tonnes of bauxite in 2024. In 2025 its military government revoked dozens of mining titles, including the permits of at least two exporting bauxite mines, and moved one to a state company. Settlements and a US$28.9bn arbitration claim now raise the cost of doing it again.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: 2025 precedents; a state company built to take assets. Brakes: the May 2026 settlement and a US$28.9bn arbitration claim; none found in 2026.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case one exporting mine's permit revoked.
The other facts on file (5)
- 15 May 2025 decree revoked 51 mining concessions; bauxite rights of two producers revoked the week before; Guinea exported about 146.4 Mt of bauxite in 2024; Shanghai alumina futures hit the daily limit, up 7% intraday to 3,149 yuan/t [1] (17 May 2025)
- Settlement, subject to conditions: Guinea pays a lump sum; assets of the revoked concession pass to the state-owned Nimba Mining Company [2] (13 May 2026)
- US$28.9bn ICSID claim over a Boffa permit revoked in May; the mine produced an estimated 18 Mt in 2024 (claimant's statement) [3] (2026)
- Guinea described as a critical supplier to global markets, particularly China [3] (2026)
- Canada mines no bauxite; one alumina refinery and ten primary smelters [5] (8 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Guinea revokes or suspends the licence of another bauxite mine that is exportingImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Guinea
How it spreads
By 1 Nov 2027, Guinea's government revokes, suspends or transfers to a state company the permit of a bauxite mine that shipped ore in the prior 12 months.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Settle and hold
No new revocations as claims are settled.
- S2
Selective action
One exporter loses its permit over refinery or tax terms.
- S3
New wave
A second decree revokes several titles.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Further settlements reported |
| S2 | A ministerial warning to a named mine |
| S3 | A mining-code audit announced |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Aluminium
- China
- Simandou ships less than 15 million tonnes of iron ore in 2026 Shares a channel: The same state's mining policy.
- A court halts the planned aluminium smelter at Inola, Oklahoma Shares a channel: The Gulf aluminium group's supply plans.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- The world's second largest bauxite producer takes strong action, revoking 51 mining rights in one go. SMM (news.metal.com) · 17 May 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- GUINEA: BAUXITE, ACCORDO CON EMIRATINA EGA DOPO REVOCA LICENZA. Agenzia ICE · 13 May 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Guinea sued for $28.9bn over mine permit. Africa Briefing · 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Aluminum facts. Natural Resources Canada · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks