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World risk · Finance and markets

Bahrain's central bank foreign exchange assets fall below BD 500m

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a monthly Central Bank of Bahrain release (Table 1, Assets/Liabilities, Foreign Exchange column, gold excluded) shows a month-end value below BD 500m (about US$1.33bn).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Capital Intelligence Ratings: gross international reserves fell to US$3.9bn in July 2026 from US$5.3bn in December 2025; central government debt projected at 156.6% of GDP in 2026 [4]

Why it matters

The Central Bank of Bahrain's foreign exchange holdings swung hard in 2026, from BD1,945m in March to BD567.6m in May, before recovering to BD944.5m in July. A month below BD 500m would put the dinar's dollar peg under strain. The UAE has opened a swap line, and a rating agency expects Gulf support to continue.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the fall in gross reserves and rising debt; the near miss in May. Brakes: the UAE swap line; expected Gulf support; the July rebound.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one month-end reading below BD 500m.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Foreign exchange holdings (BD million): 1,430.8 Dec 2025; 1,076.3 Jan, 1,774.5 Feb, 1,945.4 Mar, 1,306.0 Apr, 567.6 May, 684.0 Jun, 944.5 Jul 2026; gold separate at 228.2 in July [1] (31 Jul 2026)
  • May 2026 came within BD68m of BD 500m; the April-May fall was 57%; no year-end since 2016 was below BD 699.8m [1] (12 Aug 2026)
  • UAE and Bahrain central banks signed an AED20bn five-year currency swap, announced on 10 Apr 2026 [2] (10 Apr 2026)
  • An Iranian missile set fire to a unit of the Sitra refinery on 5 Mar 2026; the government said it was contained [5] (5 Mar 2026)
  • Fitch's Cedric Berry: GCC partners would step in with grants and cheap loans in addition to the swap line, so liquidity tensions are unlikely [3] (10 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

UAEQATAR11. Bahrain's central bank foreign exchange assets fall below BD 500m: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Bahrain's central bankforeign exchange assetsfall below BD 500mElevated impact · possibleBAHRAIN RESERVES UNDER BD 500M0200 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UAEQATAR11. Bahrain's central bank foreign exchange assets fall below BD 500m: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Bahrain reservesunder BD 500mBAHRAIN RESERVES UNDER BD 500M0200 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, a monthly Central Bank of Bahrain release (Table 1, Assets/Liabilities, Foreign Exchange column, gold excluded) shows a month-end value below BD 500m (about US$1.33bn).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. The pegHoldings below BD 500m [1] leave less cover for the dinar's peg and raise borrowing costs (Strature's view).
  3. Gulf supportA low reading would push Saudi Arabia and the UAE towards more support (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Recovery holds

    Holdings stay above BD 900m.

  2. S2

    Another swing

    Debt payments drag holdings near the May low.

  3. S3

    Breach and rescue

    Holdings fall below BD 500m and Gulf neighbours step in.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The August and September 2026 tables
S2A monthly reading under BD 600m
S3A GCC support package announced

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Central Bank of Bahrain monthly table to October 2026 [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BAHRAIN · strature.net

The other side

Fitch's Cedric Berry told The New Arab (10 Apr 2026) that Gulf partners would likely add grants and cheap loans if needed, so liquidity tensions are unlikely [3]. The July rebound shows how fast holdings can recover [1].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Central Bank of Bahrain: Assets / Liabilities (Table 1). Central Bank of Bahrain · 12 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. UAE and Bahrain sign US$5.44bn currency swap deal to boost financial cooperation. GCC Business Watch · 10 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. UAE hands Bahrain financial lifeline as Iran war shocks economy. The New Arab · 10 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Bahrain Ratings Affirmed with a Stable Outlook. Capital Intelligence Ratings (via MENAFN) · 2 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Bahrain says Iran missile sparked fire at main oil refinery, contained. Khaleej Times (AFP) · 5 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks