One of New Caledonia's two working nickel plants stops for 90 days
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Doniambo smelter (Nouméa) or the southern plant (Prony) stops production for 90 days or more in a row.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Northern plant on standby since February 2024; direct jobs about 4,500 (6,400 in 2024); exports 280bn CFP francs 2023, 122bn 2024, 123bn 2025; low prices, record costs; sulphur price rise for the southern plant [2]
- 1bn CFP francs added for the power utility's deficit [6]
- Parent group's adjusted figures exclude most of Doniambo operator's activity, now borne by the State (AFP's account) [4]
- Lecornu: EUR 400-460m for 2027, mostly grants; debt contract targeted before year-end [5]
Why it matters
New Caledonia had three nickel plants in 2019; the northern one has stood idle since February 2024, the Nouméa smelter survives on French state support, and the southern plant runs but is for sale. Direct nickel jobs fell from 6,400 in 2024 to about 4,500 in 2026, and nickel exports more than halved from 2023. Low world prices and record costs squeeze both working plants.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: low prices and record costs; sulphur costs for the southern plant; a plant for sale; power price rises. Brakes: state support for the smelter, whose operator's activity is now borne by the State; the 2027 aid package.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: one plant stops for 90 days. A halt would be a gain for Canada.
The other facts on file (2)
- Three plants in 2019; northern plant idle and seeking a buyer since 2024; southern plant runs but is for sale; Doniambo survives on state support; 12,800 jobs lost since 2024 (ISEE) [1] (18 Jun 2026)
- Mine output 2025: New Caledonia about 140,000 t, world 3.9 Mt, Indonesia 2.6 Mt; Canada a similar tonnage [3] (Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- One of New Caledonia's two working nickel plants stops for 90 daysImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · New Caledonia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Doniambo smelter (Nouméa) or the southern plant (Prony) stops production for 90 days or more in a row.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced; a halt would be a gain for Canadian producers.
- JobsA halt would hit a sector already down to about 4,500 direct jobs [2].
- Exports and public financeNickel exports were 123bn CFP francs in 2025 [2]; lower output deepens reliance on French aid [5].
- World supplySmall: one plant of a territory with under a twentieth of world mine output [3].
Who is exposed
- Countries
- New Caledonia, France
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Nickel
- Companies
- SLN, Prony Resources, KNS
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Kept alive
State support and the 2027 aid package hold both plants open.
- S2
Southern stop
No buyer is found and high sulphur costs force a standby.
- S3
Smelter standby
Support is cut or power costs rise further and Doniambo stops furnaces.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The French 2027 budget vote |
| S2 | A sale process ending without a buyer |
| S3 | A furnace shutdown notice |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 Year-end target for a debt and responsibility contract with the State [5] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [3] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- France
- No status agreement that includes the FLNKS is signed by 31 Mar 2027 Driven by: The political impasse delays investment and keeps the plants on yearly aid.
- A new sulphur squeeze cuts Indonesia's battery-nickel output Shares a channel: The same sulphur cost and Indonesian nickel supply set world prices.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Nouvelle-Calédonie : un archipel profondément bouleversé à l'aube d'un scrutin crucial. Outremers 360 (AFP) · 18 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- DÉCRYPTAGE. Le nickel, un secteur en crise en Nouvelle-Calédonie (chapitre 2/2). Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère (France Télévisions) · 31 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nickel. US Geological Survey · 2026-01 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Eramet continue de préparer son augmentation de capital, pénalisé par le nickel au troisième trimestre 2026 (AFP). Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère · 30 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Nouvelle-Calédonie : le contrat de responsabilité et de désendettement bâti avant la fin de l'année. Outremers 360 · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Retraites, assurance maladie, système électrique, transport : face aux urgences, la Nouvelle-Calédonie ajuste son budget. Nouvelle-Calédonie La 1ère · 31 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks