A Reykjanes eruption cuts hot water to the peninsula for a day
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula cuts hot water or power from the Svartsengi plant to Reykjanes communities for 24 hours or more, as stated by civil protection or the utility.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Volume change under Svartsengi 17 Jul 2025 to 16 Aug 2026 about 29.1 million m3 (28.3-29.9); 27 Oct 2026: uplift steady, intrusion potentially leading to an eruption most likely; hazard map valid until 5 Jan 2027 [4]
Why it matters
Nine eruptions have broken out on the Sundhnúkur crater row near the Svartsengi geothermal plant since December 2023, the last on 16 Jul 2025. In February 2024 lava cut the main hot-water pipeline from Svartsengi, leaving thousands of people and Keflavík Airport without hot water. On 27 Oct 2026 the Met Office said uplift continues and a magma intrusion, possibly leading to an eruption, remains the most likely scenario.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: magma above pre-eruption levels; intrusion judged most likely. Brakes: barriers; no cut in later eruptions.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case a 24-hour cut.
The other facts on file (4)
- Ninth eruption on the crater row began 16 Jul 2025, lasted about three weeks, no infrastructure damage; about 23 million m3 of magma estimated before previous eruptions [1] (16 Jul 2026)
- Barriers surround Svartsengi; lava could reach Svartsengi outside the barriers in under 1.5 hours in one scenario; warning time 30-40 minutes [2] (25 Mar 2025)
- On 8 Feb 2024 lava damaged the main hot-water pipe from Svartsengi to Fitjar; parts of Keflavik, Sandgerdi, Gardur and Keflavik Airport lost hot water; bypass built; flow due to restart at midnight 9 Feb; full pressure up to two more days [3] (9 Feb 2024)
- Nine eruptions on the Sundhnukur crater row from Dec 2023 to 2025 (low confidence) [5] (Aug 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A Reykjanes eruption cuts hot water to the peninsula for a dayImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Iceland
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula cuts hot water or power from the Svartsengi plant to Reykjanes communities for 24 hours or more, as stated by civil protection or the utility.
Not under waySectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 1
- Iceland primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Iceland
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Intrusion only
Magma moves but does not erupt, or erupts away from the pipes.
- S2
Contained eruption
An eruption is held by the barriers.
- S3
Pipeline hit
Lava crosses the hot-water or power lines again.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A Met Office notice of an intrusion towards the Sundhnukur crater row |
| S2 | Lava reaching the barrier line |
| S3 | A civil-protection call to save hot water |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 5 Jan 2027 Current Met Office hazard map for the area expires unless renewed earlier [4] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Each eruption since 2024 has tested barriers and bypass pipes; the July 2025 eruption damaged no infrastructure [1], and the peninsula's response is a working model for resilient district heating (Strature's view).
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- One year after last eruption, Iceland still expects more volcanic activity. Iceland Review · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi continues. Icelandic Meteorological Office · 25 Mar 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Iceland volcano eruption cuts off hot water supply to thousands. CBS News · 9 Feb 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ground uplift and magma accumulation continue beneath Svartsengi. Icelandic Meteorological Office · 27 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2023–2025 Sundhnúkur eruptions. Wikipedia · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; score unchanged · All risks