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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

The Danube at Budapest falls to 0 cm, or low water stops shipping

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Danube at the Budapest gauge reads 0 cm or lower on any day, as published by Hungary's water service (Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat), or a waterway or navigation authority of Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania or Bulgaria closes or suspends navigation for all cargo vessels on a Danube section because of low water (a draught, load or convoy limit alone does not count).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Budapest gauge, three latest readings in the official table read on 4 Nov 2026: 47, 42 and 37 cm; change -10 cm; flow 865 m3/s [1]
  2. Budapest 35 cm at 16:00 on 4 Nov 2026; official forecast 29 cm for 10 Nov 2026 [2]
  3. Ruse 145 cm below zero, 72 cm under the 2003 record; dozens of ships waiting; no closure reported [7]
  4. Both 700 MW Cernavodă units shut for low Danube flow (Unit 2 from 13 Aug 2026); restart of both assumed for 1 Nov [11]
  5. After a grounding at Capidava on 6 Oct 2026, ships drawing more than 1.4 m could not pass; AFDJ called Cernavodă's -259 cm a historic minimum and expected the channel cleared by 11 Oct [6]
  6. Budapest -2 cm at 18:00 on 1 Oct 2026 and 0 cm on the morning of 2 Oct; Paks -114 cm, Dunaújváros -116 cm [3]

Why it matters

The Danube at Budapest read -2 cm on 1 Oct 2026, the lowest on record; on 4 Nov it read 37 cm and was falling. The risk is that it goes that low again, or that low water makes an authority stop shipping, which none was reported to do in 2026.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: record lows at Budapest, Cernavodă and Ruse in one year; the river is falling, with 29 cm forecast for 10 Nov. Brakes: winter rain and snowmelt usually lift the river; zero was never reached before 2026. No cited source leans towards the event, so not 5 or 6.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Budapest 1 cm at noon on 8 Sep 2026 [4] (8 Sep 2026)
  • Budapest 9 cm on 2 Aug 2026; earlier lows 51 cm (1947), 52 cm (29 Aug 2003) and the 33 cm record of 25 Oct 2018 [5] (4 Aug 2026)
  • Bulgaria's river agency restricted navigation for low water; some ships had to wait or reduce loads [8] (21 Jul 2026)
  • Force majeure notice for AFDJ in effect from 1 Jul 2026, end date to be set by hydrological conditions; AFDJ required draught, convoy and load adjustments from 14 Jul [9] (20 Jul 2026)
  • viadonau: cargo ships cannot load fully; no official restriction; Port of Vienna says rail and road can make up for reduced ship traffic [10] (28 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

UKRAINEITALYGERMANYPOLANDROMANIABELARUSBULGARIAAUSTRIACROATIAMOLDOVANETHERLANDSSWITZERLANDALBANIA11. The Danube at Budapest falls to 0 cm, or low water stops shipping: Elevated impact · possible (Budapest (Danube gauge, Vigadó tér))1 Danube at Budapesthits 0 cmDANUBE AT BUDAPEST HITS 0 CM0500 kmat 48°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UKRAINEITALYGERMANYPOLANDROMANIABELARUSBULGARIACROATIA11. The Danube at Budapest falls to 0 cm, or low water stops shipping: Elevated impact · possible (Budapest (Danube gauge, Vigadó tér))1 Danube at Budapesthits 0 cmDANUBE AT BUDAPEST HITS 0 CM0500 kmat 48°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, the Danube at the Budapest gauge reads 0 cm or lower on any day, as published by Hungary's water service (Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat), or a waterway or navigation authority of Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania or Bulgaria closes or suspends navigation for all cargo vessels on a Danube section because of low water (a draught, load or convoy limit alone does not count).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. FreightA closed section stops barges; the Port of Vienna said rail and road can take up cargo [10].
  3. PowerBoth Cernavodă nuclear units were shut for low Danube flow in 2026 [11].
  4. GrainBlack Sea grain barges wait [7].

Goods 1

  • Grain

Sectors 3

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 5

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Hungary, Austria, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia, Ukraine, Moldova, Germany.

Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Grain, Oil products, Steel, Gravel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Wet winter

    Rain and snow refill the basin.

  2. S2

    Near miss

    Another dry summer takes Budapest into the teens with draught limits, but no zero and no closure.

  3. S3

    Zero again

    A second dry season takes Budapest to 0 cm, or an authority closes a section.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Budapest above 100 cm by January 2027
S2viadonau or AFDJ load limits by July 2027
S3Budapest under 20 cm in November 2026

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jul 2027 Summer low-water season begins [5] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Rail and road carriers gain cargo [10]. A Bulgarian-Romanian dredging project aims to keep the channel open most of the year (Bulgarian deputy transport minister, 21 Oct 2026) [7].

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Hydrological data. Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat (Hydroinfo) · 4 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Duna vízállás Budapest. dunavizallas.hu · 4 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Kritikus szintre csökkent a Duna vízállása: Budapesten 0 centiméteren áll. Origo · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Dráma: soha nem volt még ilyen alacsony a Duna vízállása Budapestnél. Világgazdaság · 8 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Duna vízállás Budapest: történelmi rekord kisvíz. economx.hu · 4 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Dunărea rămâne blocată la Capidava. AFDJ trimite două drage și estimează deblocarea până duminică. DCBusiness · 10 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. Danube at Critical Low in Ruse as Officials Push for Navigation Improvements. BTA · 21 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  8. Low water levels restrict navigation on the Danube. BNR · 21 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  9. AFDJ Galaţi invocă forţa majoră: nivelul extrem de scăzut al Dunării afectează grav navigaţia. Monitorul de Galați · 20 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  10. Low Water Levels on the Danube Significantly Restrict Shipping in Austria. Vienna.at (APA) · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  11. Centrala nucleară de la Cernavodă ar urma să fie repornită cu ambele unități la 1 noiembrie, potrivit noului buget rectificat al Nuclearelectrica. Economica.net · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks