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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

The Danube at Budapest falls to 50 cm or lower

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Danube at the Budapest gauge reads 50 cm or lower on any day, as published by Hungary's water service (Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat).

Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
10Severe rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 3 Nov 2026: the official Budapest gauge read 47 cm, below the 50 cm line [1].

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 4 to 10; Likelihood trend to up.
  2. Budapest gauge, three latest readings in the table read on 3 Nov 2026: 64, 54 and 47 cm; change -17 cm; flow 919 m3/s [1]
  3. Energy ministry note citing Transelectrica forecasts: no secure restart of Cernavodă units in November for want of Danube flow; crisis state extended to 30 Nov 2026 [10]
  4. Barge freight Giurgiulești-Constanța about $75/t from $15-35/t [8]

Why it matters

The Danube at Budapest set record lows in summer 2026, down to 9 cm on 2 Aug, and barges from Austria to Romania sailed half-loaded or stopped. On the morning of 3 Nov 2026 Hungary's water service read the Budapest gauge at 47 cm, so the condition already holds on the first day of the window. The question now is how long low water lasts and how far down it goes.

Why Likelihood 10 Pushes: two record lows in eight years; a BOKU-led study sees far more restriction days by 2050. Brakes: rain can lift the river within days.

The other facts on file (7)
  • Budapest 9 cm on 2 Aug 2026, below 33 cm of 25 Oct 2018; earlier lows 51 cm (1947) and 52 cm (2003) [2] (4 Aug 2026)
  • No cargo ship at Bratislava or Komárno public ports by early August; ships loaded about half their usual tonnage or stopped [3] (5 Aug 2026)
  • One of eight turbines running at Gabčíkovo [4] (29 Jul 2026)
  • viadonau: cargo ships can no longer load fully; no official restriction; Port of Vienna says cargo would shift to rail or truck [5] (28 Jul 2026)
  • Lower Danube at 1,700 m3/s against a July average of 4,700, lowest since 1996; grain barges idle [6] (20 Jul 2026)
  • Ruse: shipping nearly stopped, force majeure; Chiciu-Aydemir ferry suspended [7] (30 Jul 2026)
  • BOKU-led study: about 80% more shipping restriction days by 2050 [9] (6 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

UKRAINEITALYGERMANYPOLANDROMANIABELARUSBULGARIAAUSTRIACROATIANETHERLANDSSWITZERLANDALBANIA11. The Danube at Budapest falls to 50 cm or lower: Elevated impact · under way (Budapest (Danube gauge, Vigadó tér))1 Danubeunder 50 cmat BudapestDANUBE UNDER 50 CM AT BUDAPEST0500 kmat 48°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UKRAINEITALYGERMANYROMANIABELARUSBULGARIACROATIA11. The Danube at Budapest falls to 50 cm or lower: Elevated impact · under way (Budapest (Danube gauge, Vigadó tér))1 Danubeunder 50 cmat BudapestDANUBE UNDER 50 CM AT BUDAPEST0500 kmat 48°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Danube at the Budapest gauge reads 50 cm or lower on any day, as published by Hungary's water service (Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat).

Under way now

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. FreightBarges sail part-loaded or wait; the Port of Vienna said cargo would shift to rail or truck; grain freight to Constanța rose [5][8].
  3. PowerRiver-cooled plants lose output, as Gabčíkovo and Cernavodă did in 2026 [4][10].
  4. Grain corridorUkrainian and Moldovan grain on the lower Danube pays more to reach the Black Sea [8].

Goods 1

  • Grain

Sectors 3

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 7

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Croatia, Germany.

Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Grain, Oil products, Steel, Gravel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Autumn rains

    The river rises within weeks and the 2027 summer stays near normal.

  2. S2

    Long low

    Low water lasts into winter and returns in summer 2027.

  3. S3

    New record

    A second dry summer takes Budapest below the 2026 low.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Budapest back above 100 cm by December 2026
S2Cernavodă's restart slips past December 2026
S3viadonau load limits by July 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 30 Nov 2026 End of Romania's extended energy crisis state [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Jul 2027 Start of the summer low-water season [5] Tentative · Window

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Rail and road operators gain cargo when barges stop, as the Port of Vienna said in 2026 [5]. Strature's view: low water speeds talk of river works and rail links.

Connected in Strature

Sources

10 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Hydrological data. Országos Vízjelző Szolgálat (Hydroinfo) · 3 Nov 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Duna vízállás Budapest: történelmi rekord kisvíz. economx.hu · 4 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Stav Dunaja vplýva na prekládku tovarov. TASR (teraz.sk) · 5 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Dunaj na 30-ročnom minime ohrozuje elektrinu, plavbu aj prírodu. Startitup · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Low Water Levels on the Danube Significantly Restrict Shipping in Austria. Vienna.at (APA) · 28 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Danube water levels reach lowest in 30 years, hampering farming and shipping. gCaptain (Reuters) · 20 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. Historically Low Danube Levels Disrupt River Shipping, Bulgarian Maritime Administration Warns. BTA · 30 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  8. Grain freight from Giurgiulesti to Constanta jumps to $75/t as Danube water levels fall. UkrAgroConsult · 5 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  9. Danube Could Experience Low Water Levels Much More Frequently by 2050. Vol.at · 6 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  10. Centrala de la Cernavodă ar putea fi repornită abia în decembrie. Economica.net · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks