Zambia's copper output falls in 2026, below 2025's 890,346 tonnes
The test Zambia's official figure for 2026 copper production, published by 1 Nov 2027 by the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development, is below 890,346 tonnes, the 2025 total.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Zambia mined 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 8% but short of its 1 Mt target. Output fell 4.27% in the first quarter of 2026, then recovered to end the half 0.45% up, with fuel and sulphuric-acid shortages holding plants back. Whether 2026 ends above or below 2025 now turns on the second half.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: a negative first quarter, fuel and acid shortages, a weaker power outlook. Brakes: the second quarter recovered and the half ended slightly up; large mines rising; ZESCO was reported in June 2026 to expect stable supply. Official figures point both ways: an open contest, 5.
Why Impact 3 Threshold: a fall of a few thousand tonnes.
The other facts on file (4)
- 2025 output 890,346 t, up 8% from 825,513 t; 1 Mt target missed; goal 3 Mt a year by 2031 [1] (27 Jan 2026)
- Q1 2026 output down 4.27% to about 208,992 t [2] (13 May 2026)
- H1 2026 output 447,181.93 t against 445,176.59 t, up 0.45%; fuel and acid shortages cut plant feed [3] (31 Jul 2026)
- Open Zambia: ZESCO does not expect a return to nationwide load management [5] (10 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Zambia's copper output falls in 2026, below 2025's 890,346 tonnesImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Zambia
How it spreads
Zambia's official figure for 2026 copper production, published by 1 Nov 2027 by the Ministry of Mines and Minerals Development, is below 890,346 tonnes, the 2025 total.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Budget and IMF programmeLower copper exports mean less revenue and foreign exchange (Strature's view; no sourced figure).
- MiningA fall would push the 3 Mt goal further out [1].
Goods 1
- Copper
Sectors 1
- Mining and metals
Countries 1
- Zambia primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Zambia
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Banks and insurers
- Goods
- Copper
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A small rise
Expansions carry H2 above last year.
- S2
Flat
Within a few thousand tonnes either way.
- S3
A fall
Shortages or power cuts trim H2.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The ministry's nine-month figure, about November 2026 |
| S2 | Fuel and acid supply in Q4 2026 |
| S3 | The ministry's full-year figure, about late January 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Nine-month 2026 output figure [3] Tentative · Outside event
- Jan 2027 Full-year 2026 output briefing [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Drought at Lake Kariba brings 12-hour daily power cuts back to Zambia and Zimbabwe Driven by: The mines share the Kariba-fed grid.
- DR Congo cuts its cobalt export quota below 87,000 t a year Shares a channel: The same Central African Copperbelt and its export routes.
- A month-long stop in EU copper smelting or refining Shares a channel: World copper supply.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Zambia's 2025 copper output rises 8%, misses 1 million tonne target. Ecofin Agency · 28 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Zambia's copper output down 4.27 pct in Q1 2026. The Star (Malaysia) · 14 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Copper production edges up in first half of 2026, Zambia ministry official says. Zambia Monitor · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- ZRA slashes Kariba water allocation for 2027. The Herald (Zimbabwe) · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- ZESCO: No Return to Nationwide Load Shedding. Open Zambia · 10 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks