Drought at Lake Kariba brings 12-hour daily power cuts back to Zambia and Zimbabwe
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, ZESCO (Zambia) or ZESA/ZETDC (Zimbabwe) runs household load-shedding of 12 hours a day or more for at least 30 days in a row, as announced by the utility or the energy regulator.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Up since 15 Oct 2026: the Zambezi River Authority cut the 2027 Kariba power allocation.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 5 to 4.
- 2027 Kariba allocation 23 bn m3 (11.5 each), down from 36 bn m3 in 2026, on forecasts of strong El Nino and below-normal rain [1]
- Usable storage 23.77 bn m3 (36.68%) on 14 Oct 2026, against 8.25 bn m3 (12.75%) a year earlier; projected 5.83 bn m3 by 31 Dec 2027 [1]
- WMO expects a very strong El Nino into early 2027 [2]
Why it matters
On 15 Oct 2026 the Zambezi River Authority cut the water Zambia and Zimbabwe may use at Kariba in 2027 to 23 bn m3, from 36 bn m3, citing a strong El Nino. Both countries ran long daily cuts in the last drought. Before the cut, in May and June 2026, both utilities said long cuts were over, citing added thermal and solar capacity and imports.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the allocation cut, ZRA's projected fall in storage to about a tenth of live storage by end-2027, the El Nino forecast. Brakes: both utilities' heads said in May and June 2026 that long cuts are over; storage is higher than a year ago.
Why Impact 5 Threshold: 12-hour cuts for 30 days.
The other facts on file (3)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Drought at Lake Kariba brings 12-hour daily power cuts back to Zambia and ZimbabweImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Zambia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, ZESCO (Zambia) or ZESA/ZETDC (Zimbabwe) runs household load-shedding of 12 hours a day or more for at least 30 days in a row, as announced by the utility or the energy regulator.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- MiningCopperbelt mines draw on the same grid (Strature's view).
- Households and firmsLong daily cuts hit small firms, water pumping and cold chains (Strature's view).
- BudgetsPower imports cost foreign exchange; Zimbabwe already imports from Mozambique [5].
Goods 2
- Electricity
- Copper
Sectors 2
- Mining and metals
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 2
- Zambia primary
- Zimbabwe primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Zambia, Zimbabwe
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Electricity, Copper
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Managed
Thermal, solar and imports cover the gap; cuts stay short.
- S2
Rationed
Cuts of 8-10 hours return in the dry season.
- S3
Back to 12 hours
A failed rainy season forces long daily cuts.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | ZESCO and ZESA schedules in the first quarter of 2027 |
| S2 | The lake level at the end of the rains, about May 2027 |
| S3 | A ZRA mid-year review cutting the allocation again, about mid-2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 1 Jan 2027 2027 Kariba allocation of 23 bn m3 takes effect [1] Declared · Outside event
- May 2027 End of the rainy season: lake inflow known [1] Tentative · Window
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Zimbabwe
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The El Nino is the stated reason for the allocation cut.
- Zambia's copper output falls in 2026, below 2025's 890,346 tonnes Drives: Copperbelt mines draw on the same grid.
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Shares a channel: The same drought hits the 2027 harvest.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- ZRA slashes Kariba water allocation for 2027. The Herald (Zimbabwe) · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- El Nino set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027. World Meteorological Organization · 3 Sep 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- No end in sight to the electricity crisis. NewsDay (Zimbabwe) · 23 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- ZESCO: No Return to Nationwide Load Shedding. Open Zambia · 10 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Zimbabwe: 'No More Electricity Load Shedding Beyond 2026', Says Zesa Group CEO. AllAfrica (New Zimbabwe) · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 5 to 4 · All risks