Kuwait borrows from its Future Generations Fund
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Kuwait's Council of Ministers approves, or the finance ministry or the Kuwait Investment Authority reports, a first loan from the Future Generations Fund under the September 2026 decree-law.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
A decree of 1 September 2026 lets Kuwait's government borrow from the Future Generations Fund, its sovereign savings fund, for the first time in decades. The budget gap is the widest since the pandemic, but Kuwait also borrows cheaply in markets. Whether the cabinet takes a first loan is open; none had been reported by 1 November.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the widest deficit since the pandemic and a pre-war budget already in deficit; the decree was written for this use. Brakes: strong market access, a sukuk law, the KD30bn ceiling and the General Reserve Fund. Two drivers with blockers holding.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one loan inside the caps.
The other facts on file (5)
- Amiri decree of 1 Sep 2026 allows government loans from the Future Generations Fund to support the General Reserve Fund; cabinet decision per loan; repayment priority; no amount decided [1] (1 Sep 2026)
- FY2025/26 deficit KD7.1bn (US$22.9bn), about 15% of GDP; oil revenue down 30% [4] (29 Jul 2026)
- FY2026/27 budget deficit projected at KD9.8bn at US$57 oil; break-even US$90.5 [5] (11 Feb 2026)
- US$6bn three-tranche bond, orders above US$18bn; debt ceiling KD30bn [6] (Jul 2026)
- Moody's affirmed A1, outlook stable [8] (22 May 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Kuwait borrows from its Future Generations FundImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Kuwait
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, Kuwait's Council of Ministers approves, or the finance ministry or the Kuwait Investment Authority reports, a first loan from the Future Generations Fund under the September 2026 decree-law.
Not under wayChannels 2 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Sovereign balance sheetEconomist Al-Salloum (6 Sep) wrote that agencies often treat such loans as book entries but a fall in the fund's external assets could weigh on the rating [3].
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Kuwait primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Kuwait
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Markets suffice
Bonds and sukuk cover the gap; no loan.
- S2
First loan
The cabinet approves a loan inside the caps.
- S3
Deep draw
Oil volumes fall again and loans reach the caps.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A sukuk issue under Law No 90 of 2026 |
| S2 | A cabinet decision naming an amount |
| S3 | A new Iranian strike on Kuwaiti plants |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Kuwait
- An Iranian strike halts a Kuwaiti refinery, terminal or water plant Driven by: Lost oil volumes widen the deficit a loan would cover.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: The Hormuz closure caused the FY2025/26 revenue fall.
- No new GCC support package for Bahrain by mid-2027 Shares a channel: Kuwait is a past donor to Bahrain; its own gap limits that help.
Sources
9 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Govt can borrow from wealth fund. Kuwait Times · 1 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kuwait looks to Future Generations Fund for liquidity amid war headwinds. Enterprise MENA+ · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- On borrowing from future generations (opinion, Abdullah Al-Salloum). Kuwait Times · 6 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kuwait's deficit hits post-covid high as oil revenues collapse. Enterprise MENA+ · 29 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kuwait forecasts 54.7% rise in fiscal deficit. Arab News · 11 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kuwait raises $6bln in three-tranche bond sale, finance ministry says. Zawya (Reuters) · 2026-07 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Sukuk law widens Kuwait's funding options: minister. Kuwait Times · 20 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Moody's affirms State of Kuwait sovereign credit rating at A1, outlook stable. Central Bank of Kuwait · 22 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kuwait 'AA-/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable. S&P Global Ratings (on the Central Bank of Kuwait site) · 22 May 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks