Solomon Islands ends or suspends its 2022 security pact with China
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Solomon Islands government officially ends, suspends or declines to renew its 2022 security agreement with China.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Solomon Islands' new prime minister, Matthew Wale, said on 3 Jun 2026 that he will review the secret 2022 security pact with China, and Australia and Solomon Islands began work on a new treaty. A week later he said the pact's non-disclosure clause is legally binding. On 28 Oct 2026 he was flown to Australia for urgent medical treatment.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the review announced 3 Jun 2026; a minister's call to tear the pact up; the Australian treaty with a six-month target; Wale's reset with Canberra. Brakes: the legally binding non-disclosure clause; China's loans; a narrow 26-22 change of government; the prime minister's medical evacuation on 28 Oct 2026.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: the pact suspended.
The other facts on file (4)
- Wale says he will review the 2022 pact; received a copy a day before the Canberra trip; Albanese announces work on a comprehensive treaty and police training; Chinese police collected village data under the previous government; debt to Chinese banks doubled in 2025 [1] (3 Jun 2026)
- Kenilorea: security space a little too crowded; next six months a good deadline for the Australian treaty; earlier called for the pact to be torn up [2] (23 Jun 2026)
- Wale: the pact includes a legally binding non-disclosure provision; contents cannot be disclosed [3] (12 Jun 2026)
- Manele lost a no-confidence vote 26 to 22 on 7 May 2026 [6] (7 May 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Solomon Islands ends or suspends its 2022 security pact with ChinaImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Solomon Islands
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, the Solomon Islands government officially ends, suspends or declines to renew its 2022 security agreement with China.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Pact ended
The review ends with the pact suspended or ended and an Australian treaty signed.
- S2
Quiet freeze
The pact stays but goes unused while the Australian treaty is signed.
- S3
Status quo
Wale's illness or a coalition break stalls the review.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A cabinet decision published on the review |
| S2 | The Australian treaty signed with no word on China |
| S3 | An acting prime minister or a new confidence motion |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 Kenilorea's suggested end-of-year timing for the Australian treaty [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A settled single security partner could unlock Australian and US finance for ports and other infrastructure that Wale is seeking [1] (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Australia
- China
- Vanuatu signs its separate economic agreement with China Shares a channel: The same Australia-China contest for Pacific security and infrastructure ties; Vanuatu signed its pact in Canberra in June 2026.
- China takes a formal measure against Panama over its canal ports Shares a channel: The same US-China contest over ports and political alignment.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Solomons PM Says to Review Secretive Security Pact With China. The Defense Post (with AFP) · 3 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- China's policing plans should be sidelined, says top Solomons minister. PINA (from the Sydney Morning Herald) · 23 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Solomons PM says China security pact must stay secret despite his earlier pledge for a review. Pacific Media Network · 12 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Solomon Islands PM Matthew Wale flown to Australia for urgent medical treatment. RNZ Pacific · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Solomon Islands PM Wale asks public for prayers as he recovers in Australia. RNZ Pacific · 30 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Manele out: Solomon Islands prime minister ousted in 26-22 vote. Pacific Media Network · 7 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks