Niger's crude exports through Benin stop for 30 days
The test Before 1 Nov 2027, no crude loads at Benin's Sèmè terminal from the Niger-Benin pipeline for 30 days in a row (operator, Niger or Benin official, or two sources).
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 4 to 3.
Why it matters
Niger exports its crude through a single 2,000 km pipeline from the Agadem field to Benin's Sèmè terminal, its only sea outlet for oil. Exports stopped for about two months in 2024, after a border dispute with Benin and attacks on the line. A deal in principle with the Chinese partner in May 2026 and an August 2026 cargo show the route working again.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the 2024 attacks, the closed border. Brakes in force: the May 2026 terms, August 2026 cargoes.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case: a 30-day stop.
The other facts on file (5)
- Benin blocked Niger's crude exports through its port in May 2024; on 14 Jun 2024 Niger's oil minister oversaw the padlocking of a pipeline section [1] (18 Jun 2024)
- Six soldiers guarding the line killed on 12 Jun 2024; sabotage in the Tesker area on 16-17 Jun 2024 confirmed by Niger's rulers (AFP) [2] (22 Jun 2024)
- A tanker loaded about one million barrels of Nigerien oil at a Benin port, bound for China [3] (21 Aug 2024)
- Agreement in principle on 18 May 2026: Niger takes 45% of the pipeline company; tariff cut from US$27 to US$15 a barrel, saving about US$106m a year; exports suspended during a dispute that opened in 2025 (no dates); pre-crisis field capacity about 20,000 b/d [4] (22 May 2026)
- A tanker left Sèmè with one million barrels of Nigerien crude on 14 Aug 2026 under a 22 Jul contract with Algeria's state oil company; the border closure since 2023 has not suspended the pipeline; Sèmè is the only sea outlet for Niger's crude [5] (18 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Niger's crude exports through Benin stop for 30 daysImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Niger
How it spreads
Before 1 Nov 2027, no crude loads at Benin's Sèmè terminal from the Niger-Benin pipeline for 30 days in a row (operator, Niger or Benin official, or two sources).
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Niger's export incomeThe pipeline is the only sea outlet for Niger's crude [5]; a stop halts those sales (Strature's view; no sum sourced).
- BeninTerminal work at Sèmè would stop (Strature's view; no transit fee sourced).
- BuyersChina and Algeria have bought cargoes [3][5]; they can replace them from other grades.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady flows
The May 2026 terms hold and cargoes leave Sèmè.
- S2
Short stops
An attack or a payment row halts loadings for days.
- S3
Long halt
A new dispute or a large attack stops exports for a month or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Further Sèmè cargoes reported |
| S2 | A reported attack on the line in Niger |
| S3 | Benin or Niger suspending loadings |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- China
- Algeria
- Uranium from Arlit's mine stock leaves Niger Shares a channel: The closed Benin border constrains Niger's exports.
- One attack in northern Benin kills 20 or more soldiers Shares a channel: Armed groups in the Benin-Niger border area.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Niger stops oil exports to China via Benin's coast. Offshore Technology · 18 Jun 2024 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Niger's military rulers confirm sabotage of oil pipeline by rebels (AFP). Free Malaysia Today · 22 Jun 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Niger resumes oil exports via Benin after suspension. Radar Africa · 21 Aug 2024 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Le Niger reprend la main sur son pétrole avec 45 % de Wapco. Benin Web TV · 22 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bénin : 1 million de barils de pétrole nigérien exportés depuis Sèmè-Kpodji avec Sonatrach. La Nouvelle Tribune · 18 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 4 to 3 · All risks