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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Ecuador decrees a state of exception for El Niño floods

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, Ecuador's President decrees a state of exception for public calamity (Constitution art. 164) over rain, flood or landslide damage in one or more provinces.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Strong to very strong El Niño expected through January-March 2027 [2]
  2. INAMHI: the coast entered an initial stage of transition and atmospheric coupling; the most intense rains expected in November and December and into early 2027 [6]

Why it matters

A strong El Niño is building, and Ecuador's heaviest coastal rain is expected from November. A red alert and a decree of 31 Aug 2026 made prevention a priority, but no state of exception has been declared. A 2023 court ruling may push the government towards ordinary powers.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: a strong El Niño peaking in the coast's rainy season; atmospheric coupling under way (INAMHI, 14 Sep 2026); the 1997-98 analogue named by ERFEN; a national red alert; the 18 Nov 2015 decree in the last strong El Niño.

The other facts on file (9)
  • ERFEN (6 Aug 2026) found relative similarity with 1997-98 and 2023-24 in ocean conditions, not a sign of equal intensity; anomalies of 2.3 C in Niño 3.4 and 4.1 C in Niño 1+2; peak expected in November-December [1] (13 Aug 2026)
  • Ecuador's risk agency declared a red alert across the country over El Niño [3] (30 Aug 2026)
  • Executive Decree 485 (31 Aug 2026) made El Niño prevention a national priority and ordered nine ministries to act and the economy ministry to secure resources; it declares no state of exception; the SNGR red alert resolution is dated 29 Aug [4] (2 Sep 2026)
  • Decree 693 (20 Mar 2023) declared a calamity in 14 provinces over floods and an earthquake; the Constitutional Court struck it down on 30 Mar 2023 [5] (30 Mar 2023)
  • Preventive yellow alert on 18 May 2026 covering 17 provinces and 143 cantons [7] (22 May 2026)
  • On 18 Nov 2015 President Correa decreed a 60-day state of exception in 17 of 24 provinces over El Niño [8] (18 Nov 2015)
  • Espol oceanographer María del Pilar Cornejo put El Niño losses at 9-12% of GDP (optimistic) to 15-20% (severe) [9] (10 Sep 2026)
  • Risk Management Secretary Carolina Lozano told AFP the situation was spoken of as moderate, with the largest impact in the first quarter of 2027 [10] (18 Jun 2026)
  • Decree 229 (19 Apr 2024) declared a 60-day national state of exception for grave internal commotion and public calamity over the electricity emergency [11] (19 Apr 2024)

Where it sits

ECUADOR11. Ecuador decrees a state of exception for El Niño floods: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Ecuador decrees a stateof exception for El NiñofloodsElevated impact · possibleECUADOR EL NIÑO FLOOD EMERGENCY0300 kmat 2°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ECUADOR11. Ecuador decrees a state of exception for El Niño floods: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Ecuador El Niñoflood emergencyECUADOR EL NIÑO FLOOD EMERGENCY0250 kmat 2°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, Ecuador's President decrees a state of exception for public calamity (Constitution art. 164) over rain, flood or landslide damage in one or more provinces.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Port and farmlandThe coast holds Guayaquil, the main port; 843,000 hectares of crops were hit in 1997-98 [1][7].
  3. OutputAgriculture, fishing, industry, commerce and tourism are the sectors named [9].
  4. Public financesA state of exception frees emergency spending and procurement.

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Ecuador, Peru, Colombia.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Rain without decree

    Ordinary emergency powers suffice.

  2. S2

    Calamity decree

    Coastal floods bring a state of exception.

  3. S3

    Court test

    The Constitutional Court limits a decree, as in 2023.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1SNGR declarations without a decree in December 2026
S2A decree after record rain in January 2027
S3Its review within weeks of a 2027 decree

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Expected peak of El Niño rains on the coast [1] Tentative · Strature date
  2. 30 Jun 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ECUADOR · strature.net

The other side

In June 2026 Risk Management Secretary Carolina Lozano told AFP the impact was spoken of as 'moderate', peaking in early 2027 [10]. The government may rely on ordinary powers and Decree 485 [4][5].

Connected in Strature

Sources

11 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Fenómeno El Niño 2026 en Ecuador: pronóstico y similitudes con evento catastrófico. Primicias · 13 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ENSO diagnostic discussion). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Ecuador declares emergency over El Nino. ARY News · 30 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Noboa declara prioridad nacional las acciones de prevención ante El Niño. KCH Comunicación · 2 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Corte declara inconstitucional estado de excepción en 14 provincias. Primicias · 30 Mar 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Costa de Ecuador entra en etapa de transición por El Niño. Vistazo · 14 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. Impacto histórico del fenómeno de El Niño en la Costa de Ecuador. Primicias · 22 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  8. Decretan excepción en provincias de Ecuador por El Niño. Telemetro · 18 Nov 2015 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  9. Fenómeno El Niño: pérdidas para empresas. Primicias · 11 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  10. Ecuador estima que el impacto de El Niño será moderado en diciembre. La Nación · 18 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  11. Noboa: estado de excepción por crisis energética. Teleamazonas · 19 Apr 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks