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World risk · Regulation and compliance · US trade & foreign policy

USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 30 Sep 2027, USTR publishes a Federal Register notice that opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime (the resolution test of F-0170).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth3
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. No Section 301 initiation on Canada in USTR press releases 20 Aug-23 Oct 2026 [11]
  2. Comments on the 2027 USMCA joint review due 12 Jan 2027 [10]
  3. Section 338 actions against Canada since 20 Jul 2026; import bans added 8 Sep 2026 [9]

Why it matters

Washington calls Canada's Online Streaming Act a trade barrier, and a House bill would force a Section 301 case. In June Ottawa told its regulator to review the rule that raised streamers' contributions to 15% of Canadian revenue; in July its lawyers told the Federal Court of Appeal it intends to drop the base contribution and pay with public money. Since July the US has used Section 338 against Canada, and a global Section 301 case covers Canada with 59 other economies, but no Canada-specific Section 301 case has been opened. Strature's register puts the event at 20% (Strature forecast F-0170, 1 Oct 2026).

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: USTR names the Act in the NTE and Trade Policy Agenda; the House bill; Canada gave way on its DST in 2025; the joint review is open.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case: an investigation opens, no duties yet.

The other facts on file (9)
  • CRTC raised large streamers' contributions to 15% of Canadian revenue, from at least 5% under the 2024 rules, on 21 May 2026; threshold C$25m revenue; FCA case partly halted payments first due Aug 2025 [3] (23 Jul 2026)
  • Minister directed the CRTC to review the decision; C$600m a year announced; new policy directions to come [4] (3 Jun 2026)
  • Counsel for the Attorney General told the FCA the government intends to eliminate the base contribution and replace it with government funding; s.7 direction expected in Canada Gazette Part I in the coming weeks; none found published by 27 Oct 2026 [12] (17 Jul 2026)
  • USTR's 2026 Trade Policy Agenda says Canada maintains discriminatory digital measures including the Online Streaming Act; named for the joint review [6] (20 Mar 2026)
  • 2026 NTE lists the Act as a services trade barrier; CCIA (linked by CRS) estimates US$7bn over five years [3] (23 Jul 2026)
  • Greer told Congress the Act discriminates against U.S. tech and media firms [8] (18 Dec 2025)
  • H.R. 8025 introduced 19 Mar 2026 by Rep. Smucker and five Republicans, directing a Section 301 investigation [7] (19 Mar 2026)
  • Bill as drafted: initiation within 30 days of enactment; 180 days to remedy after an affirmative finding; then mandatory action [6] (20 Mar 2026)
  • Canada rescinded its digital services tax on 29 Jun 2025, halting the 30 Jun collection [5] (29 Jun 2025)

Where it sits

11. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonOttawaMexico CityCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANGULF OF MEXICO01000 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. USTR opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act: Elevated impact · possibleWashingtonCANADAMEXICOUNITED STATESGULF OF MEXICO0500 kmat 40°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 30 Sep 2027, USTR publishes a Federal Register notice that opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act or its contribution regime (the resolution test of F-0170).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaJoint review [10], Section 338 actions [9] and a Section 301 case would run at once (Strature's view).
  2. TradeA Section 301 finding can lead to duties on any Canadian goods or suspended CUSMA benefits [6].
  3. Culture policy and regulationTests the CUSMA Article 32.6 cultural exemption and its equivalent-effect clause [3].
  4. Technology and mediaStreamers' payments, estimated by CCIA at US$7bn over five years [3].

Sectors 1

  • Technology

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Canada, United States
Sectors
Technology

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quiet fix

    Ottawa's direction drops the base contribution and USTR files the issue under the joint review.

  2. S2

    Formal case

    USTR opens a Section 301 investigation, alone or under the House bill.

  3. S3

    Folded into a wider fight

    The US keeps using Section 338 and the joint review; streaming stays one demand among many.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A section 7 direction in the Canada Gazette, Part I, and a revised CRTC rule
S2A Federal Register initiation notice
S3Joint review comments by 12 Jan 2027 that name the Act

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

20%F-0170 · Washington opens a Section 301 investigation of Canada's Online Streaming Act
Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026) · resolves by 30 Sep 2027
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0170 resolves. Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Earliest month for the Section 7 policy direction (no date set; may slip into 2027), published for consultation in Canada Gazette Part I (at least 30 days of comment), then final order and CRTC review [12] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 1 Jan 2027 Threatened US auto tariffs on Canada could start (C-006) [2] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 12 Jan 2027 Comment deadline, 2027 USMCA joint review [10] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  4. 30 Sep 2027 F-0170 resolves. Strature forecast F-0170: 20% (1 Oct 2026) [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

If Ottawa drops the contribution as its lawyers told the court [12], a case loses its cause and one irritant leaves the joint review [10]. Canadian producers keep the C$600m-a-year public support meanwhile [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

12 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Forecast register, F-0170. Strature · 2026-10 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. C-006 Canada: Access by List, Edition 1.6. Strature · 5 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Canada's Online Streaming Act: Background and Issues for Congress (IN12716). Congressional Research Service · 23 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Government of Canada announces immediate support to strengthen Canadian culture and ensure Canadian content remains affordable. Canadian Heritage · 3 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Canada rescinds digital services tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the United States. Department of Finance Canada · 29 Jun 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. The Online Streaming Act in Jeopardy: U.S. takes aim at the CUSMA cultural exemption. Michael Geist · 20 Mar 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. House Republicans introduce bill to go after Canada's Online Streaming Act. POLITICO (via Rep. Smucker) · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Trump trade rep targets Canada's beer and dairy rules in new CUSMA review conditions. CBC News (via bilaterals.org) · 18 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Ambassador Greer issues statement on President Trump's response to Canada's continued retaliation against the United States. USTR · 8 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  10. USTR seeks public comment on the 2027 Joint Review of USMCA. USTR · 2 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  11. Press releases (listing). USTR · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. Letter from counsel for the Attorney General of Canada to the Federal Court of Appeal, files A-34-25 and A-225-24. Attorney General of Canada (Department of Justice) · 17 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks