Uganda misses its June 2027 first-oil date
The test No commercial crude production from the Tilenga or Kingfisher fields by 30 Jun 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Finance committee chair: first oil expected before the end of June 2027; EACOP (1,443 km) ready to receive crude by mid-December 2026; earlier targets about 2018, 2020, 2025 and end-July 2026 missed [1]
Why it matters
Uganda's first oil has slipped from 2018 to 2020, 2025 and July 2026. Officials now aim for the Kingfisher field by the end of 2026, and Parliament was told first oil comes before the end of June 2027. The record of slips is the risk.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a record of missed dates; the IMF names further delays as a downside risk. Brakes: Kingfisher's processing plant nearly complete; official year-end aim; pipeline ready in December; six months of buffer. Two drivers, blockers holding.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case no production on 30 Jun 2027.
The other facts on file (4)
- Tilenga above 70% and Kingfisher above 90% complete; about US$12.3bn invested by end-2025; projected state revenue US$1-2.5bn a year; over US$1.4bn collected before first oil [2] (17 Aug 2026)
- Energy Secretary: EACOP and Kingfisher to enter production by the end of 2026; Kingfisher initial output 28,000 b/d; crude named Pearl Sweet [3] (2 Sep 2026)
- IMF lists further delays in oil production as a downside risk [4] (28 Jul 2026)
- Kingfisher central processing facility 99% complete, 22 of 31 wells ready; operator spoke of first exports in October 2026 [5] (27 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Uganda misses its June 2027 first-oil dateImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Uganda
How it spreads
No commercial crude production from the Tilenga or Kingfisher fields by 30 Jun 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Public moneyProjected state revenue of US$1-2.5bn a year is delayed [2].
- Balance of paymentsThe IMF expects production to improve external balances; a slip keeps the shilling dependent on gold and coffee.
- TanzaniaPipeline tariffs and port activity wait on the same date (Strature's view).
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Kingfisher starts on time
Production from late 2026.
- S2
Early-2027 start
A few months' slip but inside June.
- S3
Another slip
Commissioning or pipeline faults push past June 2027.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | EACOP declared ready in December |
| S2 | A revised date in the 2027/28 budget speech |
| S3 | No line-fill by March 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 EACOP ready to receive crude (mid-December) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- Dec 2026 Official aim for Kingfisher production by year-end [3] Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Jun 2027 Date on which this event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Uganda
- Tanzania
- The Bank of Uganda raises its policy rate above 12% Shares a channel: Oil inflows would ease pressure on the shilling, per the IMF's external outlook.
- The Tanzania LNG host government agreement is still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027 Shares a channel: Tanzania's other delayed hydrocarbons project (Strature's view).
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Uganda reschedules first commercial oil production timeline (AP). Voice of Nigeria · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- The first oil question: how the govt missed targets. Daily Monitor · 17 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Uganda names its oil Pearl Sweet ahead of first exports (AFP). Kuwait Times · 2 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- IMF Executive Board concludes 2026 Article IV consultation with Uganda, PR 26/265. International Monetary Fund · 28 Jul 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Uganda set to start crude oil exports in October 2026. The Observer (Uganda) · 27 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks