First gas from Venezuela's Dragon field does not reach Trinidad by 30 Sep 2027
The test No gas from the Dragon field reaches Trinidad and Tobago between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Sep 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Trinidad supplied 63.2% of Argentina's LNG imports in January-September 2026 [4]
Why it matters
Trinidad's LNG and petrochemical plants are short of gas, and the Dragon field in Venezuelan waters is meant to fill the gap. Trinidad's energy minister said in March 2026 that the benefits could come by the second or third quarter of 2027. Reuters reported in July that drilling would start only in the second quarter of 2027, after an investment decision not yet taken. A slip past September 2027 is the base case on these facts.
Why Likelihood 7 Pushes: no FID; drilling only from Q2 2027; the companies' three-year timeline. Brakes: the minister's on-record aim of Q2-Q3 2027 (6 Mar 2026), Q4 2027 in January; new US authorisations.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case no new gas before 30 Sep 2027.
The other facts on file (5)
- Four wells planned from Q2 2027; contract effective only after a positive FID; Shell and NGC said initial output could come in three years (subtitle: 2029); 4.2 tcf; 30-year licence to Shell and NGC in 2024; new US authorisations after Maduro's removal; 70% to Atlantic LNG, 30% petrochemicals; LNG Train 1 and several ammonia and methanol plants idle or shut [1] (15 Jul 2026)
- Energy minister Moonilal: benefits by the second, third quarter of 2027, unless something else changes [2] (6 Mar 2026)
- Energy minister Moonilal: Dragon output expected to start in the final quarter of 2027, about 350 million cubic feet a day [6] (28 Jan 2026)
- Venezuela suspended gas arrangements with Trinidad in late October 2025 [3] (2 Jan 2026)
- Trinidad supplied 51% of Chile's LNG for power and 69% of its ammonia in 2025, US$531m for both [5] (25 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- First gas from Venezuela's Dragon field does not reach Trinidad by 30 Sep 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 7 of 10, High. · Trinidad and Tobago
How it spreads
No gas from the Dragon field reaches Trinidad and Tobago between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Sep 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- LNG exportsAbout 70% of Dragon gas is meant for Atlantic LNG [1]; without it, the plant stays below capacity.
- Buyers in South AmericaTrinidad supplied 63.2% of Argentina's LNG imports in January-September 2026 [4] and 51% of Chile's LNG for power in 2025 [5].
- PetrochemicalsThe 30% share meant for petrochemicals stays unavailable [1].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Slow path
FID taken and drilling starts in 2027; gas flows later.
- S2
Fast track
A tie-in to existing Trinidad infrastructure brings early gas.
- S3
Stalled
Licences or politics stop the project again, as in October 2025.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An FID announcement |
| S2 | An official first-gas date before 30 Sep 2027 |
| S3 | A change in US authorisations |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Apr 2027 Planned start of drilling (Q2 2027, after FID) [1] Tentative · Window
- 30 Sep 2027 Date on which this risk is judged [1] Declared · Strature date
- Oct 2027 Minister's earlier target, final quarter of 2027 [6] Tentative · Outside event
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Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Venezuela
- Argentina
- Chile
- Another ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas shuts for lack of gas Drives: 30% of Dragon gas is meant for petrochemicals; the delay prolongs the shortage.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Atlantic Basin LNG supply.
- Venezuelan heavy crude takes US import share from Canada Shares a channel: US authorisations for Venezuelan energy after the change of power in Caracas.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Shell eyes 2027 kickoff for drilling at Venezuela offshore gas field (Reuters). Baird Maritime · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Energy Minister: T&T sees renewed progress on Dragon gas project. TTT · 6 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Dragon Gas collapses, diplomacy frays and crises converge in T&T. Trinidad Guardian · 2 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Base de datos del comercio exterior de bienes, importaciones 2026. INDEC (Argentina) · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Acuerdo comercial Chile-Trinidad y Tobago: aranceles a GNL y amoníaco. Reporte Minero · 25 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Trinidad eyes late-2027 start for Venezuelan gas field. Argus Media · 28 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks