Another ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas shuts for lack of gas
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, an ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas announces an indefinite shutdown, citing gas supply.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Trinidad's Point Lisas estate is a world supplier of ammonia and methanol, and it runs on gas that is running short. A fertiliser producer began shutting its plant there in late October 2025, citing port access and gas supply, and Reuters reported in July 2026 that several ammonia and methanol plants had shut or stood idle. With new Venezuelan gas not expected before 2029, a further shutdown within a year is a live risk.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: falling gas output and plants idle; Dragon not before 2029; Venezuela's 2025 suspension. Brakes: gas contracts with remaining producers; idling rather than closure.
The other facts on file (4)
- Gas output declined; LNG and petrochemical producers below capacity; several ammonia and methanol plants shut or idle; Dragon first output expected 2029, 30% for petrochemicals [1] (15 Jul 2026)
- A fertiliser producer began a planned shutdown of its Point Lisas plant in late October 2025 amid port access and gas supply concerns; hundreds of workers sent home; Venezuela suspended gas arrangements [2] (2 Jan 2026)
- Trinidad supplied 69% of Chile's ammonia and 51% of its LNG for power in 2025, US$531m for both; a trade agreement would remove a 6% tariff [3] (25 Aug 2026)
- USGS: US ammonia net import reliance 5% (2025e); import sources 2021-24 Canada 49%, Trinidad and Tobago 47%; an October 2025 Point Lisas closure driven by restricted port access and gas supply, plant made about 85,000 t ammonia a month [4] (Feb 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Another ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas shuts for lack of gasImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Trinidad and Tobago
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, an ammonia or methanol plant at Point Lisas announces an indefinite shutdown, citing gas supply.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Chile's mines and farmsChile buys most of its ammonia from Trinidad; a shutdown means sourcing elsewhere at a cost.
- Trinidad's economyJobs and export earnings at the estate.
- US fertiliser buyersTrinidad is one of two main ammonia suppliers to the US.
Goods 2
- Ammonia
- Natural gas
Sectors 3
- Agriculture and food
- Mining and metals
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 3
- Trinidad and Tobago primary
- Chile
- United States
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Trinidad and Tobago, Chile, United States
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Ammonia, Methanol, Natural gas
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Hold at low rates
Plants run below capacity but none closes.
- S2
Another closure
A gas contract ends without renewal and a plant shuts.
- S3
Relief
New domestic gas or an earlier Dragon tie-in restores supply.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Ministry of Energy monthly gas output bulletins |
| S2 | A producer's notice to workers |
| S3 | An FID on Dragon |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Apr 2027 Planned start of Dragon drilling (Q2 2027, after FID) [1] Tentative · Window
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [2] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
Chile's trade agreement with Trinidad would remove a 6% tariff on LNG and ammonia (as reported) [3], keeping Trinidad competitive in a market it already leads.
Connected in Strature
- Chile
- United States
- First gas from Venezuela's Dragon field does not reach Trinidad by 30 Sep 2027 Driven by: The Dragon delay prolongs the gas gap.
- Urea prices return to crisis levels for the 2027 spring planting Shares a channel: The same nitrogen fertiliser market; Trinidad supplies US ammonia.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Shell eyes 2027 kickoff for drilling at Venezuela offshore gas field (Reuters). Baird Maritime · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Dragon Gas collapses, diplomacy frays and crises converge in T&T. Trinidad Guardian · 2 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Acuerdo comercial Chile-Trinidad y Tobago: aranceles a GNL y amoníaco. Reporte Minero · 25 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Nitrogen (Fixed), Ammonia. U.S. Geological Survey · 2026-02 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks