The coup belt: soldiers seize power in another West or Central African state
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, soldiers seize national power in a state of West Africa, Central Africa or the Sahel and hold it for at least seven days, or the African Union suspends such a state for an unconstitutional change of government; one military ruler ousting another counts.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Soldiers took power in Guinea-Bissau in November 2025, and governments in Benin, Burkina Faso and Nigeria have since said they stopped coup attempts or plots. Mali's junta lost its defence minister in an April 2026 offensive, and the jihadist group JNIM has called openly for a front to bring it down.
Why Likelihood 4 Any army in the belt can trigger it. Brakes: the failed attempts, ECOWAS backing, no base-case source.
The other facts on file (6)
- Soldiers seized power in Guinea-Bissau in November 2025; a decree set elections for 6 Dec 2026 [3] (22 Jan 2026)
- Benin: soldiers announced the president's removal on state television on 7 Dec 2025; the Interior Minister said the attempt was foiled; ECOWAS condemned it [5] (7 Dec 2025)
- Burkina Faso: the Security Minister said a plot to destabilise the country through targeted assassinations was uncovered on the night of 3 Jan 2026; arrests under way [6] (7 Jan 2026)
- Nigerian authorities said soldiers plotted to overthrow the president; at least 16 officers are expected before a military tribunal; no verdict reported [7] (4 Feb 2026)
- Mali: late-April 2026 attacks killed the defence minister; JNIM called on 30 April for a common front against the junta and blockaded roads into Bamako and Kati [1] (1 May 2026)
- The AU suspended Madagascar after the military took power in October 2025 [8] (15 Oct 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, soldiers seize national power in a state of West Africa, Central Africa or the Sahel and hold it for at least seven days, or the African Union suspends such a state for an unconstitutional change of government; one military ruler ousting another counts.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Regional trade and sanctionsECOWAS has answered each attempt with condemnation and, in past cases, with sanctions and suspension; a new junta could also leave for the Alliance of Sahel States (Strature's view).
- Mining and energyThe Sahel juntas have moved gold and uranium assets to the state.
- Security partnersJuntas in the belt have turned to Russia for security help [2].
Sectors 2
- Mining and metals
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 5
- Mali primary
- Burkina Faso primary
- Guinea-Bissau primary
- Benin primary
- Nigeria primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea-Bissau, Benin, Nigeria, Niger, Chad.
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Another seizure
A coup succeeds, likeliest where an army already rules or faces jihadists.
- S2
Plots, no takeover
Governments report foiled plots and arrests, as in Benin, Burkina Faso and Nigeria.
- S3
Managed transitions
Juntas hold votes on their own terms.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A junta reshuffles its army command after a battlefield loss |
| S2 | A new arrest wave of officers |
| S3 | Guinea-Bissau sets a new election date |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 6 Dec 2026 Guinea-Bissau's general elections, set by decree, now to be postponed [3] Tentative · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
Most attempts in the last year failed: in Benin the army stayed loyal and ECOWAS condemned the attempt [5], and governments that survive plots tend to reshape their command, which can make the next attempt harder.
Connected in Strature
- Nigeria
- Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of state Shares a channel: A coup is one route out for Mali's leader.
- Guinea-Bissau's junta puts off the 6 Dec 2026 elections past 31 Mar 2027 Shares a channel: A longer junta rule invites a counter-coup.
- Madagascar's military transition misses its election month Shares a channel: The AU's Madagascar response is the template.
- One attack in northern Benin kills 20 or more soldiers Driven by: Northern losses press Benin's army.
- Nigeria's presidential vote slips from 16 Jan 2027 by seven days or more Shares a channel: The same army and state.
- Burkina Faso takes over another industrial gold mine Shares a channel: A junta decides the mines' fate.
- Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeks Shares a channel: The same jihadist pressure.
- JNIM carries out a deadly attack inside Mauritania Shares a channel: JNIM's reach beyond Mali.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Jihadists urge united front against Mali junta as Bamako blockade begins. France 24 (with AFP) · 1 May 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Mali's army says it has taken Kidal from Tuareg rebels, with Russia's help. Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Guinea-Bissau sets election date following last year's coup. Al Jazeera · 22 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Guinea-Bissau to delay elections following last year's coup. Reuters (via Internazionale) · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Benin coup attempt thwarted by soldiers loyal to the Republic, minister says. Africanews · 7 Dec 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Burkina Faso: authorities say new coup plot foiled, arrests underway. Africanews · 7 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- West Africa: Nigeria Says Soldiers Plotted Coup, Raising Fresh Fears in West Africa. AllAfrica · 4 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- AU suspends Madagascar as military leader to be sworn in as president. Al Jazeera · 15 Oct 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks